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Social Security And Economic Performance In Portugal: After All That Has Been Said And Done How Much Has Actually Changed?

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Author Info
Alfredo M. Pereira () (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary)
Jorge M. Andraz () (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve)

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Abstract

This paper provides an empirical estimate of the macroeconomic effects of the Portuguese pay-as-you-go social security system based on data for the period 1970-2007 and on VAR estimates using GDP, the unit cost of labor, the unemployment rate, the savings rate and social security spending. The major findings are twofold. First, growing social security spending has had detrimental effects on all of the private sector variables under consideration suggesting the existence of sizable inefficiencies. Second, these inefficiencies persist despite the successive reforms that took place over the last two decades. As a corollary, these results highlight the need for structural reforms of the pay-as-you-go system thereby addressing the sources of inefficiencies in addition to dealing with its chronic sustainability problems.

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File URL: http://web.wm.edu/economics/wp/cwm_wp81.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, College of William and Mary in its series Working Papers with number 81.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 28 Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:81

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Related research
Keywords: Social security; employment; saving; VAR; Portugal;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Barry Bosworth & Gary Burtless, 2004. "Supply-Side Consequences Of Social Security Reform: Impacts On Saving And Employment," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-01, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Juan C. Conesa & Carlos Garriga, 2008. "Optimal Fiscal Policy In The Design Of Social Security Reforms," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 291-318, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
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  4. André Silva, 2008. "Taxes and labor supply: Portugal, Europe, and the United States," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 101-124, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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