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Social Security And Economic Performance In Portugal: After All That Has Been Said And Done How Much Has Actually Changed?

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  • Alfredo M. Pereira

    ()
    (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary)

  • Jorge M. Andraz

    ()
    (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve)

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical estimate of the macroeconomic effects of the Portuguese payas- you-go social security system based on data for the period 1970-2007 and on VAR estimates using GDP, the unit cost of labor, the unemployment rate, the savings rate and social security spending. The major findings are twofold. First, growing social security spending has had detrimental effects on all of the private sector variables under consideration suggesting the existence of sizable inefficiencies. Second, these inefficiencies persist despite the successive reforms that took place over the last two decades. As a corollary, these results highlight the need for structural reforms of the pay-as-you-go system thereby addressing the sources of inefficiencies in addition to dealing with its chronic sustainability problems.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, College of William and Mary in its series Working Papers with number 81.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 28 Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwm:wpaper:81

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Keywords: Social security; employment; saving; VAR; Portugal;

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