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Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events

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This paper uses world running records by age to estimate a biological frontier of decline rates. Two models are compared: a linear/quadratic (LQ) model and a non-parametric model. Two estimation methods are used: 1) minimizing the squared difference between the observed records and the modeled biological frontier and 2) using extreme value theory to estimate the biological frontier that maximizes the probability of observing the existing world records by age. The results support the LQ model and suggest there is linear percentage decline up to the late 70's and quadratic decline after that. The extreme value estimates suggest that the true biological frontier is on average about 8 percent below the existing world records. The estimated age factors are also compared to the World Master Athletics (WMA) age factors. The two sets of age factors are close except at the old ages, where the WMA factors are noticeably smaller. Also, the WMA age factors do not meet an important biological constraint.

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  • Ray C. Fair & Edward H. Kaplan, 2017. "Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2100, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2100
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    1. Fair, Ray C, 1994. "How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 103-118, February.
    2. Ray Fair, 2004. "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2481, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    3. Einmahl, John H. J. & Magnus, Jan R., 2008. "Records in Athletics Through Extreme-Value Theory," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1382-1391.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aging effects; Running events;

    JEL classification:

    • H19 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Other
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics

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