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Was There a Structural Break in Barry Bonds’ Bat?

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  • Stephen Clayton
  • Michael Nieswiadomy
  • Mark C. Strazicich

Abstract

We utilize time series tests to investigate if Barry Bonds’ batting has a deterministic or stochastic trend and to test if structural breaks occur. Bonds’ monthly on base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS) is examined from 1986 to 2007. We find that Bonds’ OPS is stationary around two level and trend breaks. We find that Bonds’ OPS initially follows a positive trend to the age of 28.9 (June 1993), which coincides roughly with the expected peak performance age (27.6) for a MLB batter as identified by Fair (2008). Following this break, we find that Bonds’ OPS was on a plateau until a second break in September 2000. At this point, at the age of 36.1, Bonds’ OPS jumps up unexpectedly and declines slowly thereafter until his retirement in September 2007 at age 43. Key Words: age-effects, peak performance, baseball, OPS, structural break

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File URL: http://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp1013.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Appalachian State University in its series Working Papers with number 10-13.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:apl:wpaper:10-13

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  1. Nicolas Eber, 2008. "The Performance-Enhancing Drug Game Reconsidered," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(3), pages 318-327, June.
  2. John Dinardo & Jason Winfree, 2010. "The Law Of Genius And Home Runs Refuted," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 51-64, 01.
  3. Rodney Fort & Young Hoon Lee, 2007. "Structural Change, Competitive Balance, And The Rest Of The Major Leagues," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(3), pages 519-532, 07.
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