IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiutis/5cedc3d8-e623-46d5-a550-51c2eae15b1c.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Records in Athletics through Extreme-Value Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Einmahl, J.H.J.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Magnus, J.R.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

In this paper we shall be interested in two questions on extremes relating to world records in athletics.The first question is: what is the ultimate world record in a specific athletics event (such as the 100m for men or the high jump for women), given today's state of the art?Our second question is: how `good' is a current athletics world record?An answer to the second question will also enable us to compare the quality of world records in different athletics events. We shall consider these questions for each of twenty-eight events (fourteen for both men and women).We approach the two questions with the probability theory of extreme values and the corresponding statistical techniques.The statistical model is of nonparametric nature, but some `weak regularity' of the tail of the distribution function will be assumed.We will derive the limiting distribution of the estimated quality of a world record.While almost all attempts to predict an ultimate world record are based on the development of top performances over time, this will not be our method.Instead, we shall only use the top performances themselves.Our estimated ultimate world record tells us what, in principle, is possible now, given today's knowledge, material (shoes, suits, equipment), and drugs laws.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of th
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Einmahl, J.H.J. & Magnus, J.R., 2006. "Records in Athletics through Extreme-Value Theory," Other publications TiSEM 5cedc3d8-e623-46d5-a550-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:5cedc3d8-e623-46d5-a550-51c2eae15b1c
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/779718/83.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael E. Robinson & Jonathan A. Tawn, 1995. "Statistics for Exceptional Athletics Records," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 44(4), pages 499-511, December.
    2. Einmahl, J. H.J. & Dekkers, A. L.M. & de Haan, L., 1989. "A moment estimator for the index of an extreme-value distribution," Other publications TiSEM 81970cb3-5b7a-4cad-9bf6-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. M. I. Barão & J. A. Tawn, 1999. "Extremal analysis of short series with outliers: sea‐levels and athletics records," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 48(4), pages 469-487.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cai, J., 2012. "Estimation concerning risk under extreme value conditions," Other publications TiSEM a92b089f-bc4c-41c2-b297-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Russell Brook T. & Hogan Paul, 2018. "Analyzing dependence matrices to investigate relationships between national football league combine event performances," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 201-212, December.
    3. Christina Empacher & Udo Kamps & Grigoriy Volovskiy, 2023. "Statistical Prediction of Future Sports Records Based on Record Values," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, January.
    4. M. Ivette Gomes & Armelle Guillou, 2015. "Extreme Value Theory and Statistics of Univariate Extremes: A Review," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 83(2), pages 263-292, August.
    5. Daoud, Adel, 2018. "Unifying Studies of Scarcity, Abundance, and Sufficiency," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 208-217.
    6. Gbari, Kock Yed Ake Samuel & Poulain, Michel & Dal, Luc & Denuit, Michel, 2016. "Extreme value analysis of mortality at the oldest ages: a case study based on individual ages at death," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2016012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    7. Ray C. Fair & Edward H. Kaplan, 2017. "Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2100, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Ahmed, Hanan, 2022. "Extreme value statistics using related variables," Other publications TiSEM 246f0f13-701c-4c0d-8e09-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. de Valk, Cees, 2016. "A large deviations approach to the statistics of extreme events," Other publications TiSEM 117b3ba0-0e40-4277-b25e-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Hong En Tan & De Wen Soh & Yong Sheng Soh & Muhamad Azfar Ramli, 2021. "Derivation of train arrival timings through correlations from individual passenger farecard data," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(6), pages 3181-3205, December.
    11. Wang, Bing Xing & Yu, Keming & Coolen, Frank P.A., 2015. "Interval estimation for proportional reversed hazard family based on lower record values," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 115-122.
    12. Kiriliouk, Anna, 2020. "Hypothesis testing for tail dependence parameters on the boundary of the parameter space," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 121-135.
    13. Ray C. Fair & Edward H. Kaplan, 2017. "Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 3000, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Krajina, A., 2010. "An M-estimator of multivariate tail dependence," Other publications TiSEM 66518e07-db9a-4446-81be-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. John H. J. Einmahl & Sander G. W. R. Smeets, 2011. "Ultimate 100‐m world records through extreme‐value theory," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(1), pages 32-42, February.
    16. Shaul Bar-Lev, 2008. "Point and confidence interval estimates for a global maximum via extreme value theory," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1371-1381.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsourti, Zoi & Panaretos, John, 2004. "Extreme-value analysis of teletraffic data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 85-103, February.
    2. Tsourti, Zoi & Panaretos, John, 2003. "Extreme Value Index Estimators and Smoothing Alternatives: A Critical Review," MPRA Paper 6390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fátima Brilhante, M. & Ivette Gomes, M. & Pestana, Dinis, 2013. "A simple generalisation of the Hill estimator," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 518-535.
    4. Igor Fedotenkov, 2020. "A Review of More than One Hundred Pareto-Tail Index Estimators," Statistica, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna, vol. 80(3), pages 245-299.
    5. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Phornchanok Cumperayot & Casper G. de Vries, 2006. "Large Swings in Currencies driven by Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-086/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Einmahl, J.H.J. & de Haan, L.F.M. & Krajina, A., 2009. "Estimating Extreme Bivariate Quantile Regions," Other publications TiSEM 007ce0a9-dd94-4301-ad62-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Estate Khmaladze & Wolfgang Weil, 2008. "Local empirical processes near boundaries of convex bodies," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 60(4), pages 813-842, December.
    9. Einmahl, John H.J. & de Haan, Laurens & Sinha, Ashoke Kumar, 1997. "Estimating the spectral measure of an extreme value distribution," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 143-171, October.
    10. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017. "The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
    11. Einmahl, J.H.J. & Li, Jun & Liu, Regina, 2015. "Bridging Centrality and Extremity : Refining Empirical Data Depth using Extreme Value Statistics," Discussion Paper 2015-020, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Ghosh, Souvik & Resnick, Sidney, 2010. "A discussion on mean excess plots," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(8), pages 1492-1517, August.
    13. Wager, Stefan, 2014. "Subsampling extremes: From block maxima to smooth tail estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 335-353.
    14. de Haan, Laurens & Canto e Castro, Luisa, 2006. "A class of distribution functions with less bias in extreme value estimation," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(15), pages 1617-1624, September.
    15. Charnchai Leuwattanachotinan & Casper G. de Vries, 2015. "Extreme Linkages in Financial Markets: Macro Shocks and Systemic Risk," PIER Discussion Papers 2, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Zhu, Sha & Dekker, Rommert & van Jaarsveld, Willem & Renjie, Rex Wang & Koning, Alex J., 2017. "An improved method for forecasting spare parts demand using extreme value theory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(1), pages 169-181.
    17. Daouia, Abdelaati & Laurent, Thibault & Noh, Hohsuk, 2017. "npbr: A Package for Nonparametric Boundary Regression in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 79(i09).
    18. Engle, Robert F. & Manganelli, Simone, 2001. "Value at risk models in finance," Working Paper Series 75, European Central Bank.
    19. Caers, Jef & Dyck, Jozef Van, 1998. "Nonparametric tail estimation using a double bootstrap method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 191-211, December.
    20. Christian Schluter, 2018. "Top Incomes, Heavy Tails, and Rank-Size Regressions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:5cedc3d8-e623-46d5-a550-51c2eae15b1c. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Broekman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.tilburguniversity.edu/about/schools/economics-and-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.