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Properties Of Two U.S. Inflation Measures (1985-2005)

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  • Eva Vicente Martinez

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    Abstract

    Analyses are presented of 84 quarterly observations 1/85-4/05 on two U.S. index numbers of nominal prices often employed to measure inflation. Analyses are designed to answer two key questions of interest to macroeconomists. Is inflation stationary (I(0)) or stochastically non-stationary (I(1))? If it is I(1), is it scalar or multivariate? Both measures of inflation are found clearly to be I(1) and, for these measures, inflation is found clearly to be scalar. The paper also illustrates univariate analysis procedures (and report standards) considered to be more effective and convincing than those found in the existing literature on inflation measures.

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    Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría in its series Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers with number ws066818.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws066818

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    6. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. " Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-53, March.
    7. Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2001. "Mean Reversion of Inflation Rates: Evidence from 13 OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 477-487, July.
    8. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
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    11. Guy Melard, 1984. "Algorithm AS197: a fast algorithm for the exact likelihood of autoregressive-moving average models," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13692, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Culver, Sarah E & Papell, David H, 1997. "Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from Sequential Break and Panel Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 435-44, July-Aug..
    13. William J. Crowder & Mark E. Wohar, 1999. "Are Tax Effects Important in the Long-Run Fisher Relationship? Evidence from the Municipal Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 307-317, 02.
    14. Elena Andreou & Aris Spanos, 2003. "Statistical Adequacy and the Testing of Trend Versus Difference Stationarity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 217-237.
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