Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality

Contents:

Author Info

  • Graham M Turner

    ()
    (CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Australia)

Abstract

In 1972, the Club of Rome’s infamous report “The Limits to Growth” (Meadows et al., 1972) presented some challenging scenarios for global sustainability, based on a system dynamics computer model to simulate the interactions of five global economic subsystems, namely: population, food production, industrial production, pollution, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. Contrary to popular belief, The Limits to Growth scenarios by the team of analysts from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology did not predict world collapse by the end of the 20th Century. This paper focuses on a comparison of recently collated historical data for 1970–2000 with scenarios presented in the Limits to Growth. The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compares favorably with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the “standard run” scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st Century. The data does not compare well with other scenarios involving comprehensive use of technology or stabilizing behaviour and policies. The results indicate the particular importance of understanding and controlling global pollution.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.csiro.au/files/files/plje.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (CSE-Webrequest)
File Function: First version, 2008
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems in its series Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED) Working Paper Series with number 2008-09.

as in new window
Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cse:wpaper:2008-09

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Gungahlin Homestead, GPO Box 284, Canberra City, ACT 2601
Phone: (02) 6242 1600
Fax: (02) 6242 1555
Web page: http://www.csiro.au/org/cse
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: integrated global model; limits to growth; scenarios; data comparison; model validation; collapse; pollution;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ross Garnaut & Stephen Howes & Frank Jotzo & Peter Sheehan, 2008. "Emissions in the Platinum Age: the implications of rapid development for climate-change mitigation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 377-401, Summer.
  2. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Wackernagel, Mathis & Rees, William E., 1997. "Perceptual and structural barriers to investing in natural capital: Economics from an ecological footprint perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-24, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Business as usual
    by Hans in Hans Hüttel on 2012-04-09 11:00:15

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
  1. > Schools of Economic Thought, Epistemology of Economics > Heterodox Approaches > Ecological Economics > Degrowth
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. John Bryant, 2012. "Thermoeconomics, A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics, Third Edition, Chapter 6 Labour and Unemployment," Working Papers tech62012, Economic Consultancy, Vocat International.
  2. Jeremy S. Brooks, 2013. "Avoiding the Limits to Growth: Gross National Happiness in Bhutan as a Model for Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(9), pages 3640-3664, August.
  3. Nicolas Bouleau, 2012. "Limits To Growth And Stochastics," Post-Print halshs-00782948, HAL.
  4. John Bryant, 2008. "Thermodynamics and the Economic Process," Working Papers ten62008, Economic Consultancy, Vocat International.
  5. Heinrich, Torsten, 2014. "Resource Depletion, Growth, Collapse, and the Measurement of Capital," MPRA Paper 54044, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Jeong, Hae-Yong & Kim, Young-In & Lee, Yong-Bum & Ha, Kwi-Seok & Won, Byung-Chool & Lee, Dong-Uk & Hahn, Dohee, 2010. "A 'must-go path' scenario for sustainable development and the role of nuclear energy in the 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1962-1968, April.
  7. John Bryant, 2012. "Thermoeconomics, A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics, Third Edition, Chapter 5 Money," Working Papers tech52012, Economic Consultancy, Vocat International.
  8. Ugo Bardi, 2013. "Mind Sized World Models," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 896-911, March.
  9. John Bryant, 2012. "Thermoeconomics, A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics, Third Edition, Chapter 1 Introduction," Working Papers tech12012, Economic Consultancy, Vocat International.
  10. Georges BASTIN & Isabelle CASSIERS, 2013. "Modelling the balanced transition to a sustainable economy," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2013014, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  11. Pernilla Hagbert & Mikael Mangold & Paula Femenías, 2013. "Paradoxes and Possibilities for a ‘Green’ Housing Sector: A Swedish Case," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(5), pages 2018-2035, May.
  12. John Bryant, 2012. "Thermoeconomics, A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics, Third Edition, Chapter 4 Production and Entropy Processes," Working Papers tech42012, Economic Consultancy, Vocat International.
  13. John Bryant, 2012. "Thermoeconomics, A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics, Third Edition, Chapter 7 Investment and Economic Entropy," Working Papers tech72012, Economic Consultancy, Vocat International.
  14. John Bryant, 2012. "Thermoeconomics, A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics, Third Edition, Chapter 8 Energy Resources and the Economy," Working Papers tech82012, Economic Consultancy, Vocat International.
  15. John Bryant, 2012. "Thermoeconomics, A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics, Third Edition, Chapter 2 Stock and Flow Processes," Working Papers tech22012, Economic Consultancy, Vocat International.
  16. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(2), pages 664-694, February.
  17. Cameron Hepburn & Alex Bowen, 2012. "Prosperity with growth: Economic growth, climate change and environmental limits," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 93, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  18. Das Gupta, Monica, 2013. "Population, poverty, and climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6631, The World Bank.
  19. John Bryant, 2012. "Thermoeconomics, A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics, Third Edition, Chapter 9 Thermoeconomics and Sustainability," Working Papers tech92012, Economic Consultancy, Vocat International.
  20. John Bryant, 2012. "Thermoeconomics, A Thermodynamic Approach to Economics, Third Edition, Chapter 3 Thermodynamic Principles," Working Papers tech32012, Economic Consultancy, Vocat International.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cse:wpaper:2008-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CSE-Webrequest).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.