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Greed and grievance in civil wars

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  • Paul Collier
  • Anke Hoeffler
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    Abstract

    We investigate the causes of civil war, using a new data set of wars during 1960-99. We test a `greed’ theory focusing on the ability to finance rebellion, against a `grievance’ theory focusing on ethnic and religious divisions, political repression and inequality. We find that greed considerably outperforms grievance. Consistent with the greed theory, both dependence upon primary commodity exports and a large diaspora substantially increase the risk of conflict. Inconsistent with the grievance theory, greater ethnic and religious diversity reduce the risk of conflict. The results are robust to correction for outliers, alternative variable definition, and variations in estimation method.

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    File URL: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/workingpapers/pdfs/2002-01text.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford in its series CSAE Working Paper Series with number 2002-01.

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    Date of creation: 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2002-01

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    Keywords: Conflict; Development; Natural Resources; Panel Data;

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    Cited by:
    1. Grossman, Herschel I. & Mendoza, Juan, 2003. "Scarcity and appropriative competition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 747-758, November.
    2. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "Political Instability and Growth," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 04/80, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Jacky Amprou, 2011. "Aid Selectivity According to Augmented Criteria," Working Papers, HAL halshs-00562658, HAL.
    4. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Rina Bhattacharya, 2006. "Oil and Growth in the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 06/185, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Balestri Sara, 2012. "Gold and Civil Conflict Intensity: evidence from a spatially disaggregated analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 1-7, December.
    6. Hosli Madeleine O. & Hoekstra Anke, 2013. "What Fosters Enduring Peace? An Analysis of Factors Influencing Civil War Resolution," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 123-155, August.
    7. World Bank, 2007. "Social Resilience and State Fragility in Haiti," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6836, August.
    8. Manuel Fernández, 2012. "Violencia y derechos de propiedad: El caso de la violencia en Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
    9. Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2005. "Does democracy preempt civil wars?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 445-465, June.

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