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Greed and grievance in civil wars

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  • Paul Collier
  • Anke Hoeffler
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    Abstract

    We investigate the causes of civil war, using a new data set of wars during 1960-99. We test a `greed’ theory focusing on the ability to finance rebellion, against a `grievance’ theory focusing on ethnic and religious divisions, political repression and inequality. We find that greed considerably outperforms grievance. Consistent with the greed theory, both dependence upon primary commodity exports and a large diaspora substantially increase the risk of conflict. Inconsistent with the grievance theory, greater ethnic and religious diversity reduce the risk of conflict. The results are robust to correction for outliers, alternative variable definition, and variations in estimation method.

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    File URL: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/workingpapers/pdfs/2002-01text.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford in its series CSAE Working Paper Series with number 2002-01.

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    Date of creation: 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2002-01

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    Related research

    Keywords: Conflict; Development; Natural Resources; Panel Data;

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    Cited by:
    1. Jacky Amprou & Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney, 2007. "Aid Selectivity According to Augmented Criteria," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 733-763, 05.
    2. Grossman, Herschel I. & Mendoza, Juan, 2003. "Scarcity and appropriative competition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 747-758, November.
    3. Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2005. "Does democracy preempt civil wars?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 445-465, June.
    4. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Rina Bhattacharya, 2006. "Oil and Growth in the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 06/185, International Monetary Fund.
    5. World Bank, 2007. "Social Resilience and State Fragility in Haiti," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6836, April.
    6. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "Political Instability and Growth: The Central African Republic," IMF Working Papers 04/80, International Monetary Fund.

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