David Andolfatto () (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo and CREFE/UQAM) Glenn M. MacDonald () (W. E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration and Department of Economics, University of Rochester; Economics Research Center / NORC)
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This paper develops and analyzes a macroeconomic model in which aggregate growth and fluctuations arise from the discovery and diffusion of new technologies; there are no exogenous aggregate shocks. The temporal behavior of aggregates is driven by individuals' efforts to innovate and/or make use of others' innovations. Parameters describing preferences, production possibilities and learning technologies are estimated using post-war U.S. data. The model delivers predicted aggregates that grow and fluctuate much like the data. The key feature of post-war growth are explained by new technologies that differ in terms of the magnitude of their improvement over existing methods and the difficulty of acquiring them. The model implies a negative trend in technological dispersion, and that the generally lower growth witnessed during the last two decades is the result of new technologies offering comparatively minor or less broadly-applicable improvements. Data on the growing and fluctuating share of engineering Ph.D.s support the model's technological interpretation of the growth facts, and data on patent applications and adult schooling are consistent with the notion that newer technologies are more specific and proprietary.
Ce papier développe et analyse un modèle macroéconomique dans lequel croissance et fluctuations sont le résultat de la découverte et de la diffusion de nouvelles technologies; il n'y a pas de chocs agrégés exogènes. Le comportement dans le temps des agrégats est mû par l'effort d'innovation des individus ou par l'effort d'utilisation des innovations faites par des autres. Les paramètres décrivant les préférences, les possibilités de production et les technologies d'apprentissage sont estimés au moyen de données américaines d'après-guerre. Le modèle livre des agrégats qui croissent et fluctuent en grande partie comme dans les données. Les faits saillants concernant la croissance d'après-guerre sont expliqués par de nouvelles technologies qui diffèrent en termes d'ampleur d'amélioration par rapport aux méthodes existantes et de difficulté d'acquisition. Le modèle implique une tendance négative de la dispersion technologique. De plus, il montre que la croissance généralement plus faible des deux dernières décennies est le résultat de nouvelles technologies offrant des améliorations comparativement faibles ou moins bien applicables. Les données sur la part croissante et variable de Ph.D. en ingénieurie corroborent l'interprétation technologique des faits saillants de la croissance par le modèle, et les données sur les demandes de brevets et l'éducation des adultes sont conformes avec la notion que les technologies les plus récentes sont plus spécifiques et exclusives.
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Jovanovic, B. & Macdonald, G.M., 1988.
"Competitive Diffusion,"
RCER Working Papers
160, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
Other versions:
Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M., 1988.
"Competitive Diffusion,"
Working Papers
88-29, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
[Downloadable!]
Boyan Jovanovic & Glenn MacDonald, 1994.
"Competitive Diffusion,"
NBER Working Papers
4463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jovanovic, B. & MacDonald, G.M., 1991.
"Competitive Diffusion,"
Papers
92-08, Rochester, Business - Financial Research and Policy Studies.
Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1997.
"Product Innovation and the Business Cycle,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 3-22, February.
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Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.) This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.