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Frictionless Technology Diffusion: The Case of Tractors

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Rodolfo Manuelli
Ananth Seshadri

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Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests that there is a long lag between the time a new technology is introduced and the time at which it is widely adopted. The conventional wisdom is that these observations are inconsistent with the predictions of the frictionless neoclassical model. In this paper we show this to be incorrect. Once the appropriate driving forces are taken into account, the neoclassical model can account for slow' adoption. We illustrate this by developing an industry model to study the equilibrium rate of diffusion of tractors in the U.S. between 1910 and 1960.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9604.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9604

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E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
O3 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change

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  2. Chari, V V & Hopenhayn, Hugo, 1991. "Vintage Human Capital, Growth, and the Diffusion of New Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1142-65, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2001. "The Transition to a New Economy After the Second Industrial Revolution," NBER Working Papers 8676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Implementation Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1163-90, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nancy L. Rose & Paul L. Joskow, 1990. "The Diffusion of New Technologies: Evidence from the Electric Utility Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 21(3), pages 354-373, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jovanovic, B. & Macdonald, G.M., 1988. "Competitive Diffusion," RCER Working Papers 160, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  8. Leonardo Felli & F Ortalo-Magne, 1998. "Technological Innovations Slumps and Booms," CEP Discussion Papers dp0394, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  9. Jovanovic, B. & Nyarko, Y., 1996. "Learning by Doing and the Choice of Technology," Working Papers 96-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  10. repec:att:wimass:192037 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1997. "Product Innovation and the Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 3-22, February.
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  12. John Kennan & James R. Walker, 2003. "The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions," NBER Working Papers 9585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Kislev, Yoav & Peterson, Willis, 1982. "Prices, Technology, and Farm Size," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 578-95, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Third Industrial Revolution," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-12. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-53, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 1978. "On the Size Distribution of Business Firms," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(2), pages 508-523, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Sharon Oster, 1982. "The Diffusion of Innovation among Steel Firms: The Basic Oxygen Furnace," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(1), pages 45-56, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Leonardo Felli & Francois Ortalo-Magne, . ""Technological Innovations: Slumps and Booms''," CARESS Working Papres 97-17, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Lew, Byron, 2000. "The Diffusion of Tractors on the Canadian Prairies: The Threshold Model and the Problem of Uncertainty," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 189-216, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Diego Restuccia & Dennis Tao Yang & Xiaodong Zhu, 2003. "Agriculture and Aggregate Productivity: A Quantitative Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers diegor-03-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Greenwood, Jeremy & Guner, Nezih, 2008. "Social Change," IZA Discussion Papers 3485, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Richard J. Sullivan & Zhu Wang, 2005. "Internet banking: an exploration in technology diffusion and impact," Payments System Research Working Paper PSR WP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  4. Paul Beaudry & Mark Doms & Ethan Lewis, 2006. "Endogenous skill bias in technology adoption: city-level evidence from the IT revolution," Working Paper Series 2006-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Diego Comin & Bart Hobiijn, 2006. "An Exploration of Technology Diffusion," NBER Working Papers 12314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. James McAndrews & Zhu Wang, 2006. "Microfoundations of two-sided markets: the payment card example," Payments System Research Working Paper PSR WP 06-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Schiff, Maurice & Wang, Yanling, 2008. "North-South Technology Spillovers: The Relative Impact of Openness and Foreign R&D," IZA Discussion Papers 3383, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  8. Luis San Vicente Portes, 2005. "On the Distributional Effects of Trade Policy: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 358, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Johannes Hers & Niek Nahuis, 2004. "The Tower Of Babel? The Innovation System Approach Versus Mainstream Economics," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0403001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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