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Prospect Theory and Currency Returns: Empirical Evidence

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  • Taylor, Mark
  • Xu, Qi
  • Kozhan, Roman

Abstract

We empirically investigate the role of prospect theory in the foreign exchange market. Using the historical distribution of exchange rate changes, we construct a currency-level measure of prospect theory value and find that it negatively forecasts future currency excess returns. High prospect theory value currencies significantly underperform low prospect theory value currencies. The predictability is higher when arbitrage is limited and during periods of excess speculative demand of ir- rational traders. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that investors mentally represent currencies by their historical distributions or charts and evaluate the distribution in the way described by prospect theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Mark & Xu, Qi & Kozhan, Roman, 2020. "Prospect Theory and Currency Returns: Empirical Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15306
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange; Currency returns; Prospect theory; Limits to arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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