IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/15208.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Historical Econometrics: Instrumental Variables and Regression Discontinuity Designs

Author

Listed:
  • Valencia Caicedo, Felipe

Abstract

This chapter surveys the usage of Instrumental Variables (IVs) and Regression Discontinuity Designs (RDDs) in economic history. I document the positive trends of economic history articles employing these methods using three different samples: top 20 journals in economics, top 5 journals in economic history and top five general interest journals in economics from 2000-2020. I detail two broad phases: seminal articles published from 2001 to 2011, and a second wave of studies refining these techniques appearing from 2012 to today (2020). I discuss some methodological refinements that have appeared recently in the econometrics field—in the IV and RDD fronts. I then present a practical guide on regression diagnostics, acknowledging that there are other useful sources of identification available to tackle potential endogeneity issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Valencia Caicedo, Felipe, 2020. "Historical Econometrics: Instrumental Variables and Regression Discontinuity Designs," CEPR Discussion Papers 15208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP15208
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Ferguson & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2008. "Betting on Hitler—The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 101-137.
    2. Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
    3. Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 2007. "Surviving Andersonville: The Benefits of Social Networks in POW Camps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1467-1487, September.
    4. Richard Hornbeck, 2012. "The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1477-1507, June.
    5. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey Lin, 2012. "Portage and Path Dependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 587-644.
    6. Claudia Olivetti & M. Daniele Paserman, 2015. "In the Name of the Son (and the Daughter): Intergenerational Mobility in the United States, 1850-1940," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2695-2724, August.
    7. Antoni Estevadeordal & Brian Frantz & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870–1939," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 359-407.
    8. Raghuram Rajan & Rodney Ramcharan, 2015. "The Anatomy of a Credit Crisis: The Boom and Bust in Farm Land Prices in the United States in the 1920s," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1439-1477, April.
    9. Jonathan Guryan, 2004. "Desegregation and Black Dropout Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 919-943, September.
    10. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    11. Nicola Gennaioli & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2015. "State Capacity and Military Conflict," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1409-1448.
    12. Xin Meng & Nancy Qian & Pierre Yared, 2015. "The Institutional Causes of China's Great Famine, 1959–1961," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1568-1611.
    13. Eric Chaney, 2013. "Revolt on the Nile: Economic Shocks, Religion, and Political Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(5), pages 2033-2053, September.
    14. Leslie Moscow McGranahan, 2000. "Charity and the Bequest Motive: Evidence from Seventeenth-Century Wills," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1270-1291, December.
    15. Shanker Satyanath & Nico Voigtländer & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2017. "Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 478-526.
    16. Suresh Naidu & Noam Yuchtman, 2013. "Coercive Contract Enforcement: Law and the Labor Market in Nineteenth Century Industrial Britain," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 107-144, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Damian Clarke & Manuel Llorca Jaña & Daniel Pailañir, 2023. "The use of quantile methods in economic history," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 115-132, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Solomon Hsiang & Paulina Oliva & Reed Walker, 2019. "The Distribution of Environmental Damages," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103.
    2. Duc A. Nguyen & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Tristan Kohl, 2023. "What’s in a Name? Initial Geography and German Urban Development," CESifo Working Paper Series 10435, CESifo.
    3. Hsing-Hsiang Huang & Michael R. Moore, 2018. "Farming under Weather Risk: Adaptation, Moral Hazard, and Selection on Moral Hazard," NBER Chapters, in: Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior, pages 77-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    5. Venables, Anthony & Duranton, Gilles, 2018. "Place-Based Policies for Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 12889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Gobillon, Laurent & Zylberberg, Yanos, 2022. "Urban economics in a historical perspective: Recovering data with machine learning," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Kyle C. Meng, 2016. "Estimating Path Dependence in Energy Transitions," NBER Working Papers 22536, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Maria Waldinger, 2015. "The effects of climate change on internal and international migration: implications for developing countries," GRI Working Papers 192, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    9. Cascarano, Michele & Natoli, Filippo & Petrella, Andrea, 2022. "Entry, exit and market structure in a changing climate," MPRA Paper 112868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Luigi Pascali, 2017. "The Wind of Change: Maritime Technology, Trade, and Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(9), pages 2821-2854, September.
    11. Maja Adena & Ruben Enikolopov & Maria Petrova & Veronica Santarosa & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2015. "Radio and the Rise of The Nazis in Prewar Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(4), pages 1885-1939.
    12. Meissner, Christopher M., 2014. "Growth from Globalization? A View from the Very Long Run," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 8, pages 1033-1069, Elsevier.
    13. Boustan, Leah Platt & Kahn, Matthew E. & Rhode, Paul W. & Yanguas, Maria Lucia, 2020. "The effect of natural disasters on economic activity in US counties: A century of data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    14. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    15. Julien Reynaud & Fabien Lange & Łukasz Gątarek & Christian Thimann, 2011. "Proximity in Coalition Building," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(3), pages 111-132, September.
    16. Daron Acemoglu & Tarek A. Hassan & Ahmed Tahoun, 2018. "The Power of the Street: Evidence from Egypt’s Arab Spring," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 1-42.
    17. Oto-Peralías, Daniel, 2020. "Frontiers, warfare and economic geography: The case of Spain," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Giuliano, Paola & Matranga, Andrea, 2020. "Historical Data: Where to Find Them, How to Use Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 15362, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Francisco Pino & Jordi Vidal-Robert, "undated". "Habemus Papam? Polarization and Conflict in the Papal States," Working Papers wp492, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    20. Donna Feir & Rob Gillezeau & Maggie E. C. Jones, 2019. "The Slaughter of the Bison and Reversal of Fortunes on the Great Plains," Center for Indian Country Development series 1-2019, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic history; Econometrics; Instrumental variables; Regression discontinuity designs; Survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A33 - General Economics and Teaching - - Multisubject Collective Works - - - Handbooks
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • N01 - Economic History - - General - - - Development of the Discipline: Historiographical; Sources and Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.