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Investor Rewards to Climate Responsibility: Stock-Price Responses to the Opposite Shocks of the 2016 and 2020 U.S. Elections

Author

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  • Wagner, Alexander F.
  • Ramelli, Stefano
  • Zeckhauser, Richard
  • Ziegler, Alexandre

Abstract

Donald Trump's 2016 election and his nomination of climate skeptic Scott Pruitt to head the Environmental Protection Agency drastically downshifted expectations on U.S. policy toward climate change. Joseph Biden's 2020 election shifted them dramatically upward. We study firms' stock-price movements in reaction. As expected, the 2016 election boosted carbon-intensive firms. Surprisingly, firms with climate-responsible strategies also gained, especially those firms held by long-run investors. Such investors appear to have bet on a "boomerang" in climate policy. Harbingers of a boomerang already appeared during Trump's term. The 2020 election marked its arrival.

Suggested Citation

  • Wagner, Alexander F. & Ramelli, Stefano & Zeckhauser, Richard & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2018. "Investor Rewards to Climate Responsibility: Stock-Price Responses to the Opposite Shocks of the 2016 and 2020 U.S. Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 13206, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13206
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    3. Thiemo Fetzer & Ivan Yotzov, 2023. "(How) Do Electoral Surprises Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from a New Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10584, CESifo.
    4. Lee Seltzer & Laura Starks & Qifei Zhu, 2022. "Climate Regulatory Risks and Corporate Bonds," Staff Reports 1014, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Andrea Jacob & Martin Nerlinger, 2021. "Investors’ Delight? Climate Risk in Stock Valuation during COVID-19 and Beyond," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-17, November.
    6. Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Effect of U.S. Climate Policy on Financial Markets: An Event Study of the Inflation Reduction Act," CESifo Working Paper Series 10739, CESifo.
    7. Marcelo Ochoa & Matthias Paustian & Laura Wilcox, 2022. "Do Sustainable Investment Strategies Hedge Climate Change Risks? Evidence from Germany's Carbon Tax," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Pham, Linh & Hao, Wei & Truong, Ha & Trinh, Hai Hong, 2023. "The impact of climate policy on U.S. environmentally friendly firms: A firm-level examination of stock return, volatility, volume, and connectedness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Curcio, Domenico & Gianfrancesco, Igor & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Climate change and financial systemic risk: Evidence from US banks and insurers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    10. Stefano Battiston & Petr Jakubik & Irene Monasterolo & Keywan Riahi & Bas van Ruijven, 2019. "Climate Risk Assessment of the Sovereign Bond Portfolio of European Insurers," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 15, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
    11. Garel, Alexandre & Petit-Romec, Arthur, 2021. "Investor rewards to environmental responsibility: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Po‐Hsuan Hsu & Kai Li & Chi‐Yang Tsou, 2023. "The Pollution Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1343-1392, June.
    13. Billio, Monica & Costola, Michele & Hristova, Iva & Latino, Carmelo & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2022. "Sustainable finance: A journey toward ESG and climate risk," SAFE Working Paper Series 349, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    14. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Dorman,Peter, 2022. "Alligators in the Arctic and How to Avoid Them," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316516270.
    16. Khaled Alsaifi & Marwa Elnahass & Abdullah M. Al-Awadhi & Aly Salama, 2022. "Carbon disclosure and firm risk: evidence from the UK corporate responses to climate change," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 505-526, September.
    17. Monasterolo, Irene & de Angelis, Luca, 2020. "Blind to carbon risk? An analysis of stock market reaction to the Paris Agreement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    18. Alexandre Garel & Arthur Petit-Romec, 2021. "Investor rewards to environmental responsibility: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Post-Print hal-03204216, HAL.
    19. Ferentinos, Konstantinos & Gibberd, Alex & Guin, Benjamin, 2023. "Stranded houses? The price effect of a minimum energy efficiency standard," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    20. Azar, José & Duro, Miguel & Kadach, Igor & Ormazabal, Gaizka, 2021. "The Big Three and corporate carbon emissions around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 674-696.
    21. Birindelli, Giuliana & Miazza, Aline & Paimanova, Viktoriia & Palea, Vera, 2023. "Just “blah blah blah”? Stock market expectations and reactions to COP26," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    22. Ilaria Piatti & Joel Shapiro & Xuan Wang, 2023. "Sustainable Investing and Public Goods Provision," Working Papers 969, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    23. Müller, Isabella & Nguyen, Huyen & Nguyen, Trang, 2024. "Carbon transition risk and corporate loan securitization," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2024.
    24. Faccini, Renato & Matin, Rastin & Skiadopoulos, George, 2023. "Dissecting climate risks: Are they reflected in stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate finance; Climate policy; Csr; Election surprise; ESG; Event study; Institutional investors; Stock returns; Policy boomerang;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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