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Beyond Burgernomics and MacParity: Exchange Rate Forecasts Based on the Law of One Price

Author

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  • Matthias Lutz

    (University of St. Gallen)

Abstract

Cumby (1996) suggests that (i) deviations from MacParity are stationary, (ii) relative Big Mac prices converge rapidly and (iii) provide significant information on likely future exchange rate movements. This paper examines to what extent these results can be generalised to other micro-level price data such as those provided in the UBS surveys Prices and Earnings round the Globe. In many respects, the MacParity findings do not constitute a special case, although they are sensitive to sample period and numeraire currency. Surprisingly, estimates based on aggregate CPI data for the same sample periods provide qualitatively similar results.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Lutz, 2002. "Beyond Burgernomics and MacParity: Exchange Rate Forecasts Based on the Law of One Price," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 D4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpd:pd2002:d4-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. DavidC. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1336-1356, October.
    2. Thomas Mathä, 2009. "Regional Mc parity: do common pricing points reduce deviations from the law of one price?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 155-166, April.
    3. Matthias Lutz, 2004. "Price Convergence under EMU? First Estimates," International Economic Association Series, in: Alan V. Deardorff (ed.), The Past, Present and Future of the European Union, chapter 4, pages 48-73, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. O’Brien, Thomas J. & Ruiz de Vargas, Santiago, 2019. "Currency indexes and consistent currency misvaluation: Illustrations using Big Mac data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 464-474.
    5. Sandeep Mazumder, 2016. "iPad Purchasing Parity: Farewell to the Big Mac Index," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2128-2136.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Big Mac Index; micro-level price data; law of one price; exchange rate forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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