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Modelling health care expenditures; overview of the literature and evidence from a panel time series model

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  • Roel van Elk

    ()

  • Esther Mot

    ()

  • P.H. Franses

Abstract

The first purpose of this paper is to give an up to date overview of the literature on health care expenditures. Secondly, this paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating the impact of several factors on health care expenditures in an empirical analysis using an error-correction model. Health care expenditures in industrial countries have been growing rapidly over the past forty years. This rapid growth jeopardizes the sustainability of public budgets and causes an increasing interest in the determinants of health care expenditures. Additional to the 'usual suspects' for rising health care expenditures, we pay attention to a somewhat neglected driving factor, which is the increase in the relative price of health care compared to other goods and services. We find that the increasing price of health care helps to explain the increase in real health care expenditures. However, the use of health care in volume terms is negatively affected by the increasing price. This effect seems to be stronger in periods of cost containment policy. Consistent with most recent findings in the literature, we find that income and ageing are important drivers of health care expenditures.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Discussion Paper with number 121.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:121

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  1. Pedro Pita Barros, 1998. "The black box of health care expenditure growth determinants," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(6), pages 533-544.
  2. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1997. "Pooled estimators vs. their heterogeneous counterparts in the context of dynamic demand for gasoline," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 303-327, April.
  3. Weisbrod, Burton A, 1991. "The Health Care Quadrilemma: An Essay on Technological Change, Insurance, Quality of Care, and Cost Containment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 523-52, June.
  4. Dozet, Alexander & Lyttkens, Carl Hampus & Nystedt, Paul, 2002. "Health care for the elderly: two cases of technology diffusion," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-64, January.
  5. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2005. "The value of life and the rise in health spending," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Jennifer Roberts, 2000. "Spurious regression problems in the determinants of health care expenditure: a comment on Hitiris (1997)," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 279-283.
  7. Oecd, 2006. "Projecting OECD Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures: What Are the Main Drivers?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 477, OECD Publishing.
  8. Nancy Devlin & Paul Hansen, 2001. "Health care spending and economic output: Granger causality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 561-564.
  9. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Jonsson, Bengt, 2000. "International comparisons of health expenditure: Theory, data and econometric analysis," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 11-53 Elsevier.
  10. Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2005. "Health Care Expenditures in OECD Countries: A Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 1469, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Okunade, Albert A. & Murthy, Vasudeva N. R., 2002. "Technology as a 'major driver' of health care costs: a cointegration analysis of the Newhouse conjecture," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 147-159, January.
  12. Donald Freeman, 2003. "Is health care a necessity or a luxury? Pooled estimates of income elasticity from US state-level data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 495-502.
  13. Jennifer Roberts, 1999. "Sensitivity of elasticity estimates for OECD health care spending: analysis of a dynamic heterogeneous data field," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(5), pages 459-472.
  14. Jewell, Todd & Lee, Junsoo & Tieslau, Margie & Strazicich, Mark C., 2003. "Stationarity of health expenditures and GDP: evidence from panel unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 313-323, March.
  15. Clemente, Jesus & Marcuello, Carmen & Montanes, Antonio & Pueyo, Fernando, 2004. "On the international stability of health care expenditure functions: are government and private functions similar?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 589-613, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Kamil Dybczak & Bartosz Przywara, 2010. "The role of technology in health care expenditure in the EU," European Economy - Economic Papers 400, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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