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Technology adoption with forward looking agents

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Author Info
COLLA, Paolo
GARCIA, Filomena

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Abstract

We investigate the effects of forward looking behavior in technology adoption. The setup is an overlapping generation model where agents choose between two alternative networks taking in consideration both the installed base and the expected base. The latter element is the distinctive feature of our approach. We use results from the global games literature to select the unique equilibrium on which agents coordinate their expectations. We consider both the cases of incompatible and compatible technologies, and show that technologies cannot lock-in, while the adoption path exhibits hysteresis. Network choices are characterized both in terms of their long run properties and expected time of adoption.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2004041.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2004041

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Related research
Keywords: technology adoption; network externalities; global game; hysteresis;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
L0 - Industrial Organization - - General
O3 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jay Pil Choi, 1994. "Irreversible Choice of Uncertain Technologies with Network Externalities," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(3), pages 382-401, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Shy, Oz, 1996. "Technology revolutions in the presence of network externalities," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 785-800, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Liebowitz, S J & Margolis, Stephen E, 1995. "Path Dependence, Lock-in, and History," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 205-26, April.
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  4. Burdzy, Krzysztof & Frankel, David M & Pauzner, Ady, 2001. "Fast Equilibrium Selection by Rational Players Living in a Changing World," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 163-89, January.
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  5. Giannitsarou, Chryssi & Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2007. "Recursive Global Games," CEPR Discussion Papers 6470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Farrell, Joseph & Saloner, Garth, 1992. "Converters, Compatibility, and the Control of Interfaces," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 9-35, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Frankel, David M. & Morris, Stephen & Pauzner, Ady, 2003. "Equilibrium selection in global games with strategic complementarities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Liebowitz, S J & Margolis, Stephen E, 1994. "Network Externality: An Uncommon Tragedy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 133-50, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Greenstein, Shane, 1999. "Technological Competition and the Structure of the Computer Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 1-40, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Daisuke Oyama, 2004. "Booms And Slumps In A Game Of Sequential Investment With The Changing Fundamentals," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 311-320. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gandal, Neil & Greenstein, Shane & Salant, David, 1999. "Adoptions and Orphans in the Early Microcomputer Market," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 87-105, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. David Frankel & Ady Pauzner, 2000. "Resolving Indeterminacy In Dynamic Settings: The Role Of Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 285-304, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. VERGARI, Cecilia, 2004. "Herd behaviour, strategic complementarities and technology adoption," CORE Discussion Papers 2004063, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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