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¿Es conveniente una autoridad monetaria “blanda”?

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos E. Posada
  • Alfredo Villca

Abstract

Resumen: Teniendo como marco de referencia la “estrategia de inflación objetivo” es usual discutir lo que es m ́as conveniente para una sociedad en cuanto al grado de “dureza” o “agresividad” de una autoridad monetaria para defender su meta de inflación, y la credibilidad en esta entre los agentes económicos. En este documento utilizamos un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico estocástico (DSGE, por sus siglas en inglés) neo-keynesiano tanto con expectativas racionales como con adaptativas para analizar esta cuestión. Nuestros resultados sugieren que el problema que se puede derivar de una autoridad “blanda” es arriesgar la pérdida de credibilidad en su (supuesto) empeno para alcanzar una determinada meta de inflación. Además, presentamos y utilizamos una solución del modelo lo suficientemente simple como para permitir que sus simulaciones sean implementadas en una hoja de cálculo. Abstract: Within the framework of the so-called “inflation targeting” strategy there is a discussion about the convenience for a society as to the degree of “hardness” of a monetary authority looking to defend its inflation target, and the credibility that this authority enjoys between the private agents about it. In this paper we use a neo-Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with both rational and adaptive expectations to answer this question. Our results suggest that the social problem that can be derived from a “soft” authority is that it risks losing credibility in its effort to reach a certain inflation target. In addition, we present and use a solution of the rational expectations version of the model simple enough to allow its simulations to be performed using a spreadsheet.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos E. Posada & Alfredo Villca, 2017. "¿Es conveniente una autoridad monetaria “blanda”?," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 15673, Universidad EAFIT.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000122:015673
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflación; meta de inflación; autoridad monetaria; equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico; regla de Taylor; credibilidad.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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