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Los Precios Y El Impacto De La Industria En El Crecimiento Económico: Los Casos Ingles(1770-1840) Y Colombiano(1923-1998)

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  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

  • Edgar Trujillo

Abstract

El desarrollo de las actividades industriales puede tener varios efectos positivos en el crecimiento económico general. En este ensayo examinamos las consecuencias de un cambio técnico industrial en el resto de la economía a través de su efecto en los precios de los bienes industriales. Las predicciones de nuestro ejercicio teórico, basado en un modelo de equilibrio económico bisectorial, son contrastadas con la evidencia empírica de dos casos: el inglés (1770-1840) y el colombiano (1923-1998). En el caso inglés, la evidencia que actualmente se acepta indica de manera clara que el cambio técnico en la industria manufacturera fue un factor importante en la reducción de los precios relativos de los bienes industriales y en la aceleración del crecimiento del conjunto de la economía desde fines del siglo XVIII y hasta mediados del XIX, tal como lo describe nuestro modelo teórico. En el caso colombiano la evidencia disponible sugiere que el mecanismo previamente mencionado (cambio técnico en la actividad manufacturera que reduce los precios industriales y, por tanto, acelera el crecimiento económico) solo ha operado de manera esporádica, con notables y prolongadas interrupciones, y, al menos aparentemente, con debilidad.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003179.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 31 Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003179

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Keywords: Industria;

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  1. Pack, Howard, 1988. "Industrialization and trade," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 333-380 Elsevier.
  2. Madani, Dorsati H., 2001. "South-South regional integration and industrial growth : the case of the Andean Pact," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2614, The World Bank.
  3. Rodrik, Rani, 1995. "Trade and industrial policy reform," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 45, pages 2925-2982 Elsevier.
  4. Ana Fernandes, 2002. "Trade Policy, Trade Volumes and Plant-Level Productivity in Colombian Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 847, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  5. Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Multisectoral models," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 885-947 Elsevier.
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  8. Carlos Pombo, 1999. "Productividad industrial en Colombia: Una aplicación de números índices," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  9. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  10. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306, December.
  11. Marcela Meléndez & Katja Seim & Pablo Medina, 2003. "Productivity Dynamics Of The Colombian Manufacturing Sector," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 003390, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  12. Harberger, Arnold C, 1998. "A Vision of the Growth Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 1-32, March.
  13. Rana Hasan & M. G. Quibria, 2004. "Industry Matters for Poverty: A Critique of Agricultural Fundamentalism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 253-264, 05.
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