Resource curse in reverse: The coffee crisis and armed conflict in Colombia
AbstractBetween 1998 and 2003 production increases in Brazil and Vietnam drove down the price of coffee by 73 percent in global markets, triggering the international coffee crisis". We examine the effect of this exogenous price shock on Colombia´s civil war, exploring whether politically-motivated violence presented different dynamics in the coffee -growing regions relative to the non- coffee regions, during the pre-crisis and crisis periods. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we find causal evidence that the steep decline in coffee prices substantially increased both the incidence and intensity of Colombia´s civil war. We also propose a simple model linking the price shock to violence and empirically examine the relative importance of three potential mechanisms. While crop substitution from coffee to coca explains very little of the variation, a disproportionate increase in poverty in coffee areas is associated with greater violence, as is a lower state capacity."
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE in its series DOCUMENTOS CEDE with number 003460.
Date of creation: 10 Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Colombia Conflict Coffee Crisis Resource Curse Difference in Differences;
Other versions of this item:
- Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2006. "Resource Curse in Reverse: The Coffee Crisis and Armed Conflict in Colombia," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 06/05, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Dec 2006.
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-73, October.
- Angrist, Joshua & Kugler, Adriana D., 2005.
"Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income and Civil Conflict in Colombia,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joshua D. Angrist & Adriana D. Kugler, 2008. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 191-215, May.
- Joshua D. Angrist & Adriana Kugler, 2005. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia," NBER Working Papers 11219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Angrist, Joshua & Kugler, Adriana, 2007. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia," IZA Discussion Papers 2790, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004.
"Greed and grievance in civil war,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
- Robinson, James A & Torvik, Ragnar & Verdier, Thierry, 2002.
"Political Foundations of the Resource Curse,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3422, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002.
"How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?,"
NBER Working Papers
8841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February.
- Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006.
"Institutions and the Resource Curse,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 1-20, 01.
- Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2002. "Institutions and the resource curse," GE, Growth, Math methods 0210004, EconWPA.
- Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2004. "Institutions and the Resource Curse," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_012, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Mehlum, Halvor & Moene, Karl-Ove & Torvik, Ragnar, 2003. "Institutions and the resource curse," Memorandum 29/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2002. "Institutions and the resource curse," Development and Comp Systems 0210003, EconWPA.
- Do, Quy-Toan & Iyer, Lakshmi, 2007. "Poverty, social divisions, and conflict in Nepal," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4228, The World Bank.
- Barron, Patrick & Kaiser, Kai & Pradhan, Menno, 2004. "Local conflict in Indonesia : Measuring incidence and identifying patterns," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3384, The World Bank.
- Grossman, Herschel I, 1991. "A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 912-21, September.
- Deininger, Klaus, 2003. "Causes and consequences of civil strife - micro-level evidence from Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3045, The World Bank.
- Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
- Daniele Giovannucci & José Leibovich & Diego Pizano & Banco Mundial, 2002. "Colombia Coffee Sector Study," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 002135, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995.
"Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
- Rettberg, Angelika & Leiteritz, Ralf & Nasi, Carlo, 2010. "Entrepreneurial Activity and Civil War in Colombia: Exploring the Mutual Determinants between Armed Conflict and the Private Sector," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Working Paper W, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Patricia Justino, 2012.
"Shared Societies and Armed Conflict: Costs, Inequality and the Benefits of Peace,"
2012/35, Maastricht School of Management.
- Patricia Justino, 2012. "Shared Societies and Armed Conflict: Costs, Inequality and the Benefits of Peace," HiCN Working Papers 125, Households in Conflict Network.
- Hernando Zuleta & Juanita Villaveces, 2008. "Conflict and negotiation: a game theoretical approach," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 005148, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
- Steven Poelhekke & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2010.
"Do Natural Resources Attract FDI? Evidence from non-stationary sector level data,"
DNB Working Papers
266, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Poelhekke, Steven & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Do Natural Resources Attract FDI? Evidence from Non-Stationary Sector-Level Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 8079, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ahmed Saber Mahmud & Juan F. Vargas, 2008.
"Combatant recruitment and the outcome of war,"
DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO
005029, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
- Hvid, Anna Kirstine & Henningsen, Geraldine Adrienne, 2014. "A new scramble for land or an unprecedented opportunity for the rural poor? Distributional consequences of increasing land rents in developing countries," MPRA Paper 52919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Universidad De Los Andes-Cede).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.