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Risky Mortgages in a DSGE Model

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  • Chiara Forlati

    ()
    (Chair of International Finance, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland)

  • Luisa Lambertini

    ()
    (Chair of International Finance, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland)

Abstract

This paper develops a DSGE model with housing, risky mortgages and endogenous default. Housing investment is subject to idiosyncratic risk and some mortgages are defaulted in equilibrium. An unanticipated increase in the standard deviation of housing investment produces a credit crunch where delinquencies and mortgage interest rates increase, lending is curtailed, and aggregate demand for non-durable goods falls. The economy experiences a recession as a consequence of the credit crunch. The paper compares economies that differ only in the riskiness of housing investment. Economies with lower risk are characterized by lower steady-state mortgage default rates and higher loan-to-value and leverage ratios. The macroeconomic effects of an unanticipated increase in housing investment risk are amplified in high-leverage economies. Monetary policy plays an important role in the transmission of housing investment risk, as inertial interest rate rules generate deeper output contractions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Fiscal Policy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne in its series Working Papers with number 201002.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision: Nov 2010
Handle: RePEc:cif:wpaper:201002

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Keywords: Housing; Mortgage default; Mortgage Risk;

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References

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  1. Calza, Alessandro & Stracca, Livio & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2009. "Housing finance and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1069, European Central Bank.
  2. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  3. Tommaso Monacelli & Ester Faia, 2005. "Optimal Interest Rate Rules, Asset Prices and Credit Frictions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 452, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Kosuke Aoki & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2002. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Bank of England working papers 169, Bank of England.
  5. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1996. "Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mara Pirovano, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Paper Research 246, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Bofinger, Peter & Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission in a Model with Animal Spirits and House Price Booms and Busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 8804, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Chiara Forlati & Luisa Lambertini, 2012. "Mortgage Amortization and Amplification," Working Papers 201201, Center for Fiscal Policy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, revised Feb 2012.
  4. M. Falagiarda & A. Saia, 2013. "Credit, Endogenous Collateral and Risky Assets: A DSGE Model," Working Papers wp916, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  5. Dominic Quint & Pau Rabanal, 2014. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 169-236, June.
  6. Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "What drives Ireland's housing market? A Bayesian DSGE approach," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 88, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.

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