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Is The FX Derivatives Market Effective and Efficient in Reducing Currency Risk?

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Esteban Jadresic
Jorge Selaive

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Abstract

In a typical tactical asset allocation set up a manager receives compensation for his excess of return given a tracking error target. Critics of this framework cite its lack of control over the total portfolio risk. Current approaches recommend what we call a mixed allocation, derived from concerns about relative and absolute return and risk. This work provides an analytical framework for mixed tactical asset allocation, based on the premise that after the investor sets a tracking error target, a fundamental trade off remains unsolved: the one between excess of return and total risk. The article derives a separation theorem for tactical allocation, wherein the portfolio is a linear combination of an alpha portfolio providing excess returns and a beta portfolio providing overall risk hedge. The author shows how the formal expression summarizes all previous works. Moreover, it also includes the simplest Black-Litterman allocation.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 325.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:325

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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane, 2002. "Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility," Trinity Economics Papers 200211, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hau, Harald, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-30, August.
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  5. Jonathan Kearns & Ricardo J. Caballero & Kevin Cowan, 2004. "Fear of Sudden Stops: lessons from Australia and Chile," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 185, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March. [Downloadable!]
  7. Thomas Klitgaard & Laura Weir, 2004. "Exchange rate changes and net positions of speculators in the futures market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 17-28. [Downloadable!]
  8. Viviana Fernández, 2002. "The Derivatives Markets in Latin America with an Emphasis on Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 128, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Jose De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman R., 2004. "Overcoming Fear of Floating: Exchange Rate Policies in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 302, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Luís Antonio Ahumada & Jorge Selaive C., 2007. "Desarrollo del mercado de derivados cambiarios en Chile," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 22(1), pages 35-58, June. [Downloadable!]
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