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Risk Premia: Short and Long-term

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  • Stanislav Khrapov

    ()
    (New Economic School)

Abstract

Hansen (2011) considers risks associated with cash flows at alternative horizons. He shows that in the long run many investor preference specifications do not imply risk premia substantially different from those implied by simple expected utility model. The main result of this paper is that the generalized disappointment aversion model of Routledge & Zin (2010) amplifies risk premium not only in the short run but also for assets that pay off long into the future. The reason behind this result is that this utility alters the risk-neutral distribution of future economy outcomes relative to the expected utility. The latter shares the risk-neutral distribution with more general Epstein & Zin (1989) recursive utility. I also analyze the risk premium term structure implied by the three utilities and find that its slope critically depends on the volatility of the transient payoff component with high enough volatility leading to negatively sloped term structure.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0169.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0169

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Keywords: term structure of risk premium; Epstein-Zin utility; generalized disappointment aversion; finite state economy; Markov chain;

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References

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  1. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Michael W. Brandt & Ralph S.J. Koijen, . "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 11-13, Swiss Finance Institute.
  2. David M Kreps & Evan L Porteus, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Levine's Working Paper Archive 625018000000000009, David K. Levine.
  3. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
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  5. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. GARCIA, René & RENAULT, Éric, 1998. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and Option Pricing," Cahiers de recherche 9801, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  9. Bonomo, Marco & Garcia, René & Meddahi, Nour & Tédongap, Roméo, 2010. "Generalized Disappointment Aversion, Long Run Volatility Risk and Asset Prices," TSE Working Papers 10-187, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  10. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
  11. Daniel, Kent & Marshall, David, 1997. "Equity-Premium And Risk-Free-Rate Puzzles At Long Horizons," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 452-484, June.
  12. G. Constantinides, 1990. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1397, David K. Levine.
  13. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  14. Skander J. Van den Heuvel, 2008. "Temporal Risk Aversion and Asset Prices," 2008 Meeting Papers 46, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Generalized Disappointment Aversion and Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1303-1332, 08.
  16. Berg, Tobias, 2010. "The term structure of risk premia: new evidence from the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1165, European Central Bank.
  17. repec:fth:inseep:9810 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-86, May.
  19. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2009. "The term structure of equity premia in an affine arbitrage-free model of bond and stock market dynamics," Working Paper Series 1045, European Central Bank.
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