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Can Oil Prices Explain the Real Appreciation of the Russian Ruble in 1998-2005?

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Author Info

  • Kirill Sosunov

    ()
    (Higher School of Economics)

  • Oleg Zamulin

    ()
    (New Economic School)

Abstract

The paper investigates whether the 80% real appreciation of the Russian ruble in 1998-2005 can be explained by the increase in oil revenues in a calibrated general equilibrium model. It is shown that the oil prices alone cannot account for the appreciation with forward-looking permanent-income consumers, unless the oil price increase is assumed permanent. Accounting for the increase in the volume of oil exports, however, can help, provided that the increase is assumed to be permanent.

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File URL: http://www.cefir.ru/papers/WP83Sosunov_Zamulin.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0083.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0083

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Related research

Keywords: Real exchange rate; Commodity prices;

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References

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-60, June.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  4. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. ValdŽs, 1999. "The Aftermath Of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262, February.
  5. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2006. "The Inflationary Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Targeting via Accumulation of Reserves," Working Papers w0082, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  6. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Polbin, Andrey, 2014. "Econometric estimation of a structural macroeconomic model for the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 3-29.
  2. Konstantin Styrin & Oleg Zamulin, 2012. "A Real Exchange Rate Based Phillips Curve," Working Papers w0179, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).

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