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Can Oil Prices Explain the Real Appreciation of the Russian Ruble in 1998-2005?

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Author Info

  • Kirill Sosunov

    () (Higher School of Economics)

  • Oleg Zamulin

    () (New Economic School)

Abstract

The paper investigates whether the 80% real appreciation of the Russian ruble in 1998-2005 can be explained by the increase in oil revenues in a calibrated general equilibrium model. It is shown that the oil prices alone cannot account for the appreciation with forward-looking permanent-income consumers, unless the oil price increase is assumed permanent. Accounting for the increase in the volume of oil exports, however, can help, provided that the increase is assumed to be permanent.

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File URL: http://www.cefir.ru/papers/WP83Sosunov_Zamulin.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0083.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0083

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Keywords: Real exchange rate; Commodity prices;

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References

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. ValdŽs, 1999. "The Aftermath Of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262, February.
  4. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  5. Sosunov, Kirill & Zamulin, Oleg, 2006. "The inflationary consequences of real exchange rate targeting via accumulation of reserves," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  6. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Konstantin Styrin & Oleg Zamulin, 2012. "A Real Exchange Rate Based Phillips Curve," Working Papers w0179, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).

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