Can Oil Prices Explain the Real Appreciation of the Russian Ruble in 1998-2005?

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Can Oil Prices Explain the Real Appreciation of the Russian Ruble in 1998-2005?

Author Info

Kirill Sosunov () (Higher School of Economics)
Oleg Zamulin () (New Economic School)

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Abstract

The paper investigates whether the 80% real appreciation of the Russian ruble in 1998-2005 can be explained by the increase in oil revenues in a calibrated general equilibrium model. It is shown that the oil prices alone cannot account for the appreciation with forward-looking permanent-income consumers, unless the oil price increase is assumed permanent. Accounting for the increase in the volume of oil exports, however, can help, provided that the increase is assumed to be permanent.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0083.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0083

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2006-10-28 (All new papers)
NEP-CIS-2006-10-28 (Confederation of Independent States)
NEP-ENE-2006-10-28 (Energy Economics)
NEP-TRA-2006-10-28 (Transition Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. ValdŽs, 1999. "The Aftermath Of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Sosunov, Kirill & Zamulin, Oleg, 2006. "The inflationary consequences of real exchange rate targeting via accumulation of reserves," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "The inflationary consequences of real exchange rate targeting via accumulation of reserves," Working Papers WP13_2007_17, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
- Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2006. "The Inflationary Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Targeting via Accumulation of Reserves," Working Papers w0082, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-048, University of California at Berkeley.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-60, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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