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The Inflationary Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Targeting via Accumulation of Reserves

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Author Info

  • Kirill Sosunov

    (Higher School of Economics)

  • Oleg Zamulin

    () (New Economic School)

Abstract

The paper investigates the ability of monetary authorities to keep the real exchange rate undervalued over the long run by implementing a policy of accumulating foreign exchange reserves. We consider a model of a three-sector, small, open economy, where the central bank continuously purchases foreign currency reserves and compare the results to Russian and Chinese economies in recent years. Both countries appear to pursue reserve accumulation policies. We find a clear trade-o between the steady state levels of the real exchange rate and inflation. After calibration, the model predicts an 8.5% real undervaluation of the Russian currency and a 13.7% undervaluation of the Chinese currency. Predicted inflation is found to match observed levels.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0082.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0082

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Keywords: Real exchange rate targeting; foreign exchange reserves; Dutch disease;

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References

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  1. Peter J. Montiel & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1991. "Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 872-900, December.
  2. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
  3. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "PPP Exchange-Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 158-65, February.
  5. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991. "Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements," Working Paper 9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Modeling Exchange Rate Passthrough After Large Devaluations," RCER Working Papers 514, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Targeting the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 94/22, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Ivanova Nadezhda, 2005. "Estimation of own- and cross-price elasticities of disaggregated imported and domestic goods in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 05-13e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  9. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2003. "Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Growth," MPRA Paper 20069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
  11. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," NBER Working Papers 0473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "On the renminbi," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(3), pages 16-21, October.
  13. Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Disequilibrium exchange rates as industrialization policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 89-106, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2006. "Can Oil Prices Explain the Real Appreciation of the Russian Ruble in 1998-2005?," Working Papers w0083, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).

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