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Biased Beliefs about Immigration and Economic Concerns: Evidence from Representative Experiments

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  • Patrick Dylong
  • Silke Uebelmesser

Abstract

We investigate the link between biased beliefs about immigrants, economic concerns and policy preferences. Conducting representative survey experiments with more than 8000 respondents, we first document substantial biases in respondents’ beliefs about the immigrant population in various domains. Exposure to different types of signals about immigrants reduces concerns about adverse effects of immigration on the welfare state. On the contrary, different types of signals offset their effects on concerns about increasing labor market competition. Employing a data-driven approach to uncover systematic effect heterogeneity, we find that prior beliefs about immigration explain conditional average treatment effects. While attitudinal change is thus more pronounced among individuals with pre-intervention biases about immigrants, education and attitudes towards cultural diversity are additional drivers of heterogeneity. Treatment effects on welfare state concerns persist in a five to eight week follow-up.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Dylong & Silke Uebelmesser, 2022. "Biased Beliefs about Immigration and Economic Concerns: Evidence from Representative Experiments," CESifo Working Paper Series 9918, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9918
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2010. "Attitudes toward Highly Skilled and Low-skilled Immigration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 61-84, February.
    2. David Card, 1990. "The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 43(2), pages 245-257, January.
    3. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2009. "Does the Welfare State Affect Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants? Evidence across Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(2), pages 295-314, May.
    4. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2010. "Attitudes toward Highly Skilled and Low-skilled Immigration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment—Erratum," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 624-624, August.
    5. Kenneth F. Scheve & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2001. "Labor Market Competition And Individual Preferences Over Immigration Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 133-145, February.
    6. Imbens,Guido W. & Rubin,Donald B., 2015. "Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521885881.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter, Julia & Übelmesser, Silke, 2023. "Regional Determinants of Attitudes Towards Immigrants," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277664, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Patrick Dylong & Silke Übelmesser, 2024. "Vorbehalte gegenüber Zuwanderung: Die Rolle von Kontakten und Informationen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 31(01), pages 17-23, February.
    3. Elisa Stumpf & Jana Schuetz & Silke Uebelmesser & Ronja Baginski & Carmela Aprea, 2024. "Beliefs about demographic change: How well are individuals informed?," Jena Economics Research Papers 2024-003, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    4. K. Peren Arin & Umair Khalil & Deni Mazrekaj & Marcel Thum, 2023. "Terrorism and Misperceptions: Evidence from Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 10476, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration attitudes; biased perceptions; belief updating; welfare state; labor market; causal forest;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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