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Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in Real-Time: A Novel Method Applied to the Covid-19 Crisis in Germany

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Listed:
  • Kerstin Bruckmeier
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Martin Popp
  • Jürgen Wiemers
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

The highly dynamic nature of the COVID-19 crisis poses an unprecedented challenge to policy makers around the world to take appropriate income-stabilizing countermeasures. To properly design such policy measures, it is important to quantify their effects in real-time. However, data on the relevant outcomes at the micro level is usually only available with considerable time lags. In this paper, we propose a novel method to assess the distributional consequences of macroeconomic shocks and policy responses in real-time and provide the first application to Germany in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, our approach combines different economic models estimated on firm- and household-level data: a VAR-model for output expectations, a structural labor demand model, and a tax-benefit microsimulation model. Our findings show that as of September 2020 the COVID-19 shock translates into a noticeable reduction in gross labor income across the entire income distribution. However, the tax benefit system and discretionary policy responses to the crisis act as important income stabilizers, since the effect on the distribution of disposable household incomes turns progressive: the bottom two deciles actually gain income, the middle deciles are hardly affected, and only the upper deciles lose income.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerstin Bruckmeier & Andreas Peichl & Martin Popp & Jürgen Wiemers & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in Real-Time: A Novel Method Applied to the Covid-19 Crisis in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 8748, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8748
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    Cited by:

    1. Olga Cantó & Francesco Figari & Carlo V. Fiorio & Sarah Kuypers & Sarah Marchal & Marina Romaguera‐de‐la‐Cruz & Iva V. Tasseva & Gerlinde Verbist, 2022. "Welfare Resilience at the Onset of COVID‐19 Pandemic in a Selection of European Countries: Impact on Public Finance and Household Incomes," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(2), pages 293-322, June.
    2. Mike Brewer & Iva Valentinova Tasseva, 2021. "Did the UK policy response to Covid-19 protect household incomes?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 433-458, September.
    3. Geyer, Johannes, 2021. "Die Folgen der Corona-Krise für die Anwartschaften an die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung," Working Paper Forschungsförderung 216, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    4. Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Tine Hufkens & Andreas Peichl & Mattia Ricci, 2023. "The role of short-time work and discretionary policy measures in mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 crisis in Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1107-1136, August.
    5. Tanja Buch & Silke Hamann & Annekatrin Niebuhr & Duncan Roth & Georg Sieglen, 2021. "Arbeitsmarkteffekte der Corona-Krise — Sind Berufsgruppen mit niedrigen Einkommen besonders betroffen?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(1), pages 14-17, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    income distribution; inequality; recession; Covid-19; tax-benefit policies; short-time work; business survey; labor demand; microsimulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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