IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_10241.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Encourage Gambling? Evidence from the Chinese Welfare Lottery Market

Author

Listed:
  • Can Xu
  • Andreas Steiner
  • Jakob de Haan

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on gambling activity in China. Based on a theoretical model, we hypothesize that EPU increases the demand for hope which raises the willingness to pay for lottery tickets, resulting in higher lottery sales. We estimate a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model with an Error-Correction form using data on lottery sales in Chinese provinces to estimate the short- and long-run effect of EPU on gambling. Our results suggest that EPU has a significant positive effect on gambling in the short run. In addition, we find that this positive effect is less persistent if the EPU proxy is based on economic policy reports in national newspapers than when the EPU measure is derived from local newspaper reports. This may be explained by the different thematic focus and the different degrees of media censorship of national and local newspapers.

Suggested Citation

  • Can Xu & Andreas Steiner & Jakob de Haan, 2023. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Encourage Gambling? Evidence from the Chinese Welfare Lottery Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 10241, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10241
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10241.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Enrico Diecidue & Ulrich Schmidt & Peter P. Wakker, 2004. "The Utility of Gambling Reconsidered," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 241-259, December.
    3. Yih Hwai Lee & Cheng Qiu, 2009. "When Uncertainty Brings Pleasure: The Role of Prospect Imageability and Mental Imagery," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 36(4), pages 624-633, December.
    4. Daniel Kahneman & Peter P. Wakker & Rakesh Sarin, 1997. "Back to Bentham? Explorations of Experienced Utility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 375-406.
    5. Duca, John V. & Saving, Jason L., 2018. "What drives economic policy uncertainty in the long and short runs: European and U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 128-145.
    6. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers, 2010. "Explaining the Favorite-Long Shot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(4), pages 723-746, August.
    7. Huang, Wei-Ling & Lin, Wen-Yuan & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2020. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Martijn J. Burger & Martijn Hendriks & Emma Pleeging & Jan C. Ours, 2020. "The joy of lottery play: evidence from a field experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(4), pages 1235-1256, December.
    9. Chen, Liming & Du, Ziqing & Hu, Zhihao, 2020. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on exchange rate volatility of China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    10. Chew, Soo Hong & Ho, Joanna L, 1994. "Hope: An Empirical Study of Attitude toward the Timing of Uncertainty Resolution," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 267-288, May.
    11. Gregory G. Brunk, 1981. "A Test of the Friedman-Savage Gambling Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 96(2), pages 341-348.
    12. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    13. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    14. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    15. Kocher, Martin G. & Krawczyk, Michal & van Winden, Frans, 2014. "‘Let me dream on!’ Anticipatory emotions and preference for timing in lotteries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 29-40.
    16. Bruno Frey & Matthias Benz & Alois Stutzer, 2004. "Introducing Procedural Utility: Not Only What, but Also How Matters," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 160(3), pages 377-401, September.
    17. Lany DeBoer, 1986. "Lottery taxes may be too high," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 594-596.
    18. Marc Le Menestrel, 2001. "A Process Approach to the Utility for Gambling," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 249-262, May.
    19. Loewenstein, George, 1987. "Anticipation and the Valuation of Delayed Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 666-684, September.
    20. Sara Capacci & Emanuela Randon & Antonello Eugenio Scorcu, 2017. "Are Consumers More Willing to Invest in Luck During Recessions?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(1), pages 25-38, March.
    21. Charles T. Clotfelter & Philip J. Cook, 1989. "Selling Hope: State Lotteries in America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clot89-1, March.
    22. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    23. Nam, Eun-Young & Lee, Kiryoung & Jeon, Yoontae, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty shocks and households’ consumption choice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    24. Mikesell, John L., 1994. "State Lottery Sales and Economic Activity," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 47(1), pages 165-171, March.
    25. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Le, Thai-Ha & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    26. Clotfelter, Charles T & Cook, Philip J, 1990. "On the Economics of State Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 105-119, Fall.
    27. Yu, Jian & Shi, Xunpeng & Guo, Dongmei & Yang, Longjian, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and firm carbon emissions: Evidence using a China provincial EPU index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    28. Qian, Xianhang & Wu, Qian, 2021. "Local gambling preferences and bank risk–taking: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    29. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    30. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279-279.
    31. Daniel Dorn & Paul Sengmueller, 2009. "Trading as Entertainment?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(4), pages 591-603, April.
    32. Ji, Qiong & Quan, Xiaofeng & Yin, Hongying & Yuan, Qingbo, 2021. "Gambling preferences and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    33. Bei Qin & David Strömberg & Yanhui Wu, 2017. "Why Does China Allow Freer Social Media? Protests versus Surveillance and Propaganda," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 117-140, Winter.
    34. Peter Fishburn, 1980. "A simple model for the utility of gambling," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 45(4), pages 435-448, December.
    35. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    36. George Wu, 1999. "Anxiety and Decision Making with Delayed Resolution of Uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 159-199, April.
    37. Kiryoung Lee & Yoontae Jeon & Insik Kim, 2021. "Which economic uncertainty measure matters for households' portfolio decision?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 343-369, June.
    38. Conlisk, John, 1993. "The Utility of Gambling," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 255-275, June.
    39. Kalcheva, Ivalina & McLemore, Ping & Sias, Richard, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Self-Control: Evidence from Unhealthy Choices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 1446-1475, June.
    40. Soo Hong Chew & Haoming Liu & Alberto Salvo, 2021. "Adversity-hope hypothesis: Air pollution raises lottery demand in China," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 247-280, June.
    41. Robin Chark & Soo Hong Chew & Songfa Zhong, 2020. "Individual Preference for Longshots," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 1009-1039.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martijn J. Burger & Martijn Hendriks & Emma Pleeging & Jan C. Ours, 2020. "The joy of lottery play: evidence from a field experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(4), pages 1235-1256, December.
    2. Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán González, 2023. "On The Appeal Of Complexity," Working Papers 2312, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    3. van Winden, Frans & Krawczyk, Michal & Hopfensitz, Astrid, 2011. "Investment, resolution of risk, and the role of affect," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 918-939.
    4. Luke Lunhua Mao & James J Zhang & Daniel P Connaughton, 2015. "Determinants of Demand for Sports Lottery: Insights from a Multilevel Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(8), pages 973-987, August.
    5. Michele Costola & Michael Donadelli & Luca Gerotto & Ivan Gufler, 2022. "Global risks, the macroeconomy, and asset prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2357-2388, November.
    6. Filiz-Ozbay, Emel & Guryan, Jonathan & Hyndman, Kyle & Kearney, Melissa & Ozbay, Erkut Y., 2015. "Do lottery payments induce savings behavior? Evidence from the lab," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-24.
    7. Lisa L. Posey & Vickie Bajtelsmit, 2017. "Insurance and Endogenous Bankruptcy Risk: When is it Rational to Choose Gambling, Insurance, and Potential Bankruptcy?," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 42(1), pages 15-40, March.
    8. Kocher, Martin G. & Krawczyk, Michal & van Winden, Frans, 2014. "‘Let me dream on!’ Anticipatory emotions and preference for timing in lotteries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 29-40.
    9. Diecidue, E. & Schmidt, U. & Wakker, P.P., 2000. "A Theory of the Gambling Effect," Discussion Paper 2000-75, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Songping Zhu & Gaofeng Yu, 2022. "The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Industrial Output: The Regulatory Role of Technological Progress," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-18, August.
    11. repec:cup:judgdm:v:3:y:2008:i::p:389-395 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ananda Ganguly & Joshua Tasoff, 2017. "Fantasy and Dread: The Demand for Information and the Consumption Utility of the Future," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4037-4060, December.
    13. Charles Mawusi, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Remittances to Developing Economies: A System GMM Approach," Working Papers hal-03147813, HAL.
    14. Schneider, C.A.R. & Spalt, Oliver, 2016. "Conglomerate investment, skewness, and the CEO long shot bias," Other publications TiSEM 5d9321e2-35ea-40f9-9eae-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Martin Chegere & Paolo Falco & Marco Nieddiu & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Mattea Stein, 2022. "It’s a Sure Win! Experimental evidence on overconfidence in betting behavior," CSEF Working Papers 655, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    16. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Han Bleichrodt & Olivier l'Haridon & Corina Paraschiv, 2013. "Is There One Unifying Concept of Utility?An Experimental Comparison of Utility Under Risk and Utility Over Time," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(9), pages 2153-2169, September.
    17. repec:cup:judgdm:v:15:y:2020:i:4:p:517-533 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Yahui Yang & Zhe Peng, 2024. "Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from China," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 121-158, February.
    19. Schmidt, Ulrich & Zank, Horst, 2013. "Chance theory: A separation of riskless and risky utility," Kiel Working Papers 1874, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Hailiang Zou & Ruijing Wang & Guoyou Qi, 2023. "The Response of CSR to Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-19, August.
    21. Yifei Li & Yuhang Bai, 2023. "Research on the Impact of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on Manufacturing: Evidence from China, the United States, and the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-18, July.
    22. Lisa L. Posey & Vickie Bajtelsmit, 2017. "Insurance and Endogenous Bankruptcy Risk: When is it Rational to Choose Gambling, Insurance, and Potential Bankruptcy?," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 42(1), pages 15-40, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic policy uncertainty; household behaviour under uncertainty; gambling behaviour; welfare lottery; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10241. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.