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New Tools for Simulating Housing Choices

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  • Torrens, Paul M.
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    Abstract

    There are indications that the current generation of models used to simulate the geography of housing choice has reached the limits of its usefulness under existing specifications. The relative stasis in residential choice modeling--and urban simulation in general--contrasts with simulation efforts in other disciplines, where techniques, theories, and ideas drawn from computation and complexity studies are revitalizing the ways in which we conceptualize, understand, and model real-world phenomena. Many of these concepts and methodologies are applicable to housing choice simulation. Indeed, in many cases, ideas from computation and complexity studies--often clustered under the collective term of geocomputation, as they apply to geography--are ideally suited to the simulation of residential location dynamics. However, there exist several obstructions to their successful use for these puropses, particularly as regards the capacity of these methodologies to handle top-down dynamics in urban systems. This paper presents a framework for developing a hybrid model for urban geographic simulation generally and discusses some of the imposing barriers against innovation in this field. The framework infuses approaches derived from geocomputation and complexity with standard techniques that have been tried and tested in operational land-use and transport simulation. As a proof-of-concept exercise, a micro-model of residential location has been developed with a view to hybridization. The model mixes cellular automata and multi-agent approaches and is formulated so as to interface with meso-models at a higher scale.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy in its series Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series with number qt6qs0w2w1.

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    Date of creation: 01 May 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:cdl:bphupl:qt6qs0w2w1

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    1. R White & G Engelen, 1997. "Cellular automata as the basis of integrated dynamic regional modelling," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 24(2), pages 235-246, March.
    2. H Couclelis, 1997. "From cellular automata to urban models: new principles for model development and implementation," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 24(2), pages 165-174, March.
    3. Kai Nagel & Steen Rasmussen & Christopher L. Barrett, 1996. "Network Traffic as a Self-Organized Critical Phenomena," Working Papers 96-08-056, Santa Fe Institute.
    4. J Portugali & I Benenson & I Omer, 1997. "Spatial cognitive dissonance and sociospatial emergence in a self-organizing city," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 24(2), pages 263-285, March.
    5. M Batty, 1979. "Progress, success, and failure in urban modelling," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 11(8), pages 863-878, August.
    6. R A Sayer, 1979. "Understanding urban models versus understanding cities," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 11(8), pages 853-862, August.
    7. Paul M Torrens & David O'Sullivan, 2001. "Cellular automata and urban simulation: where do we go from here?," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 28(2), pages 163-168, March.
    8. Schelling, Thomas C, 1969. "Models of Segregation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 488-93, May.
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