Partial Current Information and Signal Extraction in a Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Model: A Computational Solution
AbstractPrevious attempts at modelling current observed endogenous financial variables in a macroeconomic model have concentrated on only one observed endogenous variable - namely the short-term rate of interest. The solution method for dealing with more than one observed endogenous variable has thus far been computationally intractable. This paper applies a general search algorithm to a macroeconomic model with an observed interest rate and exchange rate to solve the signal extraction problem. The informational advantage of applying the signal extraction algorithm to all the current observed endogenous variables is examined in terms of the implication for policy from the misperceptions of specific macroeconomic shocks.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2006/1.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Economic Modelling , 25 (2) , March 2008, pp. 255-273
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Aberconway Building, Colum Drive, CARDIFF, CF10 3EU
Phone: +44 (0) 29 20874417
Fax: +44 (0) 29 20874419
Web page: http://business.cardiff.ac.uk/research/academic-sections/economics/working-papers
More information through EDIRC
Rational Expectations; Partial Current Information; Signal Extraction; Macroeconomic modelling;
Other versions of this item:
- Lungu, L. & Matthews, K.G.P. & Minford, A.P.L., 2008. "Partial current information and signal extraction in a rational expectations macroeconomic model: A computational solution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 255-273, March.
- L. Lungu & K. G. P. Matthews, 2002. "Partial Current Information and Signal Extraction in a Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Model: A Computational Solution," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 115, Society for Computational Economics.
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2006-01-24 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2006-01-24 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro, 1979.
"A Capital Market In an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model,"
NBER Working Papers
0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J, 1980. "A Capital Market in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1393-1417, September.
- Budd, Alan & Dicks, Geoffrey & Holly, Sean & Keating, Giles & Robinson, Bill, 1984. "The London Business School econometric model of the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 355-420, October.
- Minford, Patrick & Webb, Bruce, 2005. "Estimating large rational expectations models by FIML--some experiments using a new algorithm with bootstrap confidence limits," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 187-205, January.
- Jean-Pascal Benassy, 2001. "The Phillips Curve and Optimal Policy in a Structural Signal Extraction Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 58-74, January.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
- repec:sae:niesru:v:114:y::i:1:p:58-68 is not listed on IDEAS
- Minford, A P L & Peel, D A, 1983. "Some Implications of Partial Current Information Sets in Macroeconomic Models Embodying Rational Expectations," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 51(3), pages 235-49, September.
- Pearlman, Joseph & Currie, David & Levine, Paul, 1986. "Rational expectations models with partial information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 90-105, April.
- Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1999. "Analytical solutions to a structural signal extraction model: Lucas 1972 revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 509-521, December.
- Matthews, K. G. P. & Minford, A. P. L. & Blackman, S. C., 1994. "An algorithm for the solution of non-linear forward rational expectations models with current partial information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 351-358, July.
- Sargent, Thomas J., 1991. "Equilibrium with signal extraction from endogenous variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 245-273, April.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Prytula, Yaroslav & Raskina, Julia & Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2009. "A small forward-looking inter-country model (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1172-1183, November.
- Carravetta, Francesco & Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Model reference adaptive expectations in Markov-switching economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 551-559.
- Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2012. "Imperfect Information, Optimal Monetary Policy and Informational Consistency," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1012, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Kiani, Khurshid M., 2013. "Can signal extraction help predict risk premia in foreign exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 926-939.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruce Webb).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.