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Financial Markets in the Face of the Apocalypse

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Abstract

This paper brings together two strands of the literature: Quantifying the impact of apocalyptic risk on capital markets, and the correct computation of the equity risk premium. For the former, we use events in four countries during the Second World War to discern markets’ incorporation of information regarding the probability of an Armageddon for each country. We argue that past computations of the equity risk premium did not properly account for the financial implications of political collapse on property/civil/human rights. Accordingly, we show that past calculations overstated the equity risk premium. We provide an estimate of the equity risk premium that is corrected for lack of basic rights, demonstrating the important changes in this estimate over time.

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  • Jędrzej Białkowski & Ehud I. Ronn, 2016. "Financial Markets in the Face of the Apocalypse," Working Papers in Economics 16/14, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:16/14
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    File URL: https://repec.canterbury.ac.nz/cbt/econwp/1614.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim, 2018. "Negative bubbles: What happens after a crash," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 171-191, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rare (“black swan”) events; Equity premium; International political crises; property; civil; and human rights; World War II;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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