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Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07

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  • Yiqun Gloria Chen

Abstract

This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics using a Phillips curve model, assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations, and analyzes the sensitivity of inflation to cyclical fluctuations of economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yiqun Gloria Chen, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07," Working Papers 55501, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:55501
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-08/55501-CBO-working-paper-inflation-expectations-and-phillips-curve.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan K. Detmeister & Daeus Jorento & Emily Massaro & Ekaterina V. Peneva, 2015. "Did the Fed's Announcement of an Inflation Objective Influence Expectations?," FEDS Notes 2015-06-08-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Brent Meyer & Guhan Venkatu, 2012. "Trimmed-mean inflation statistics: just hit the one in the middle," Working Papers (Old Series) 1217, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2013. "News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1045-1067, September.
    4. Saten Kumar & Hassan Afrouzi & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 151-225.
    5. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
    6. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    7. Carola Binder & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2016. "Digging into the Downward Trend in Consumer Inflation Expectations," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue September.
    8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2019. "Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 465-469, May.
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    10. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Topa, Giorgio, 2011. "Expectations of inflation: The biasing effect of thoughts about specific prices," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 834-845.
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    14. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery," NBER Working Papers 19390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    16. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
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    18. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 31-34, May.
    19. Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
    20. Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Jim Dolmas, 2005. "Trimmed mean PCE inflation," Working Papers 0506, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey Schafer, 2022. "Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03," Working Papers 57398, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Richard Curtin, 2019. "Consumer expectations: a new paradigm," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 199-210, October.
    3. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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