Household inflation expectations and the price of oil: it's déjà vu all over again
AbstractThe University of Michigan survey of consumers shows that expected inflation has moved up noticeably over the past few months, raising concerns that we may be in for a period of rising inflation. However, the increase in expected inflation likely reflects the excess sensitivity of consumers to food and energy prices. Consistent with this hypothesis, household surveys have not forecast inflation well in recent years, a period of volatile food and energy prices.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal FRBSF Economic Letter.
Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): may23 ()
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- Bharat Trehan & Maura Lynch, 2013. "Consumer inflation views in three countries," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov25.
- Vipin Arora & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Shuping Shi, 2011.
"Testing for Explosive Behaviour in Relative Inflation Measures: Implications for Monetary Policy,"
Development Research Unit Working Paper Series
37-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Arora, Vipin & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping, 2013. "The divergence between core and headline inflation: Implications for consumers’ inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 497-504.
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