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Household inflation expectations and the price of oil: it's déjà vu all over again

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  • Bharat Trehan

Abstract

The University of Michigan survey of consumers shows that expected inflation has moved up noticeably over the past few months, raising concerns that we may be in for a period of rising inflation. However, the increase in expected inflation likely reflects the excess sensitivity of consumers to food and energy prices. Consistent with this hypothesis, household surveys have not forecast inflation well in recent years, a period of volatile food and energy prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal FRBSF Economic Letter.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): may23 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:may23:n:2011-16

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Petroleum products - Prices;

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Cited by:
  1. Bharat Trehan & Maura Lynch, 2013. "Consumer inflation views in three countries," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov25.
  2. Vipin Arora & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Shuping Shi, 2011. "Testing for Explosive Behaviour in Relative Inflation Measures: Implications for Monetary Policy," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 37-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.

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