IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2011imay23n2011-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Household inflation expectations and the price of oil: it's déjà vu all over again

Author

Listed:
  • Bharat Trehan

Abstract

The University of Michigan survey of consumers shows that expected inflation has moved up noticeably over the past few months, raising concerns that we may be in for a period of rising inflation. However, the increase in expected inflation likely reflects the excess sensitivity of consumers to food and energy prices. Consistent with this hypothesis, household surveys have not forecast inflation well in recent years, a period of volatile food and energy prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bharat Trehan, 2011. "Household inflation expectations and the price of oil: it's déjà vu all over again," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may23.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:may23:n:2011-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-16.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Which Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target?
      by noreply@blogger.com (Carola) in Quantitative Ease on 2015-09-06 17:04:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlos R. Barrera Chaupis, 2018. "Expectations and Central Banks' Forecasts: The Experience of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and the United Kingdom, 2004 – 2014," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 578-599, December.
    2. André Marine Charlotte & Dai Meixing, 2018. "Learning, robust monetary policy and the merit of precaution," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
    4. Gert Peersman, 2022. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 85-100, March.
    5. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2023. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 157, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    6. Arora, Vipin & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Shi, Shuping, 2013. "The divergence between core and headline inflation: Implications for consumers’ inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 497-504.
    7. Maura Lynch & Bharat Trehan, 2013. "Consumer inflation views in three countries," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov25.
    8. Augustus Kmetz & Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J. Wilson, 2022. "Can the News Drive Inflation Expectations?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(31), pages 1-6, November.
    9. Yiqun Gloria Chen, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07," Working Papers 55501, Congressional Budget Office.
    10. Marine Charlotte André & Meixing Dai, 2018. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers of BETA 2018-45, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:may23:n:2011-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.