IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bwu/eiiwdp/disbei309.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

OECD Countries' Twin Long-run Challenge: The Impact of Ageing Dynamics and Increasing Natural Disasters on Savings Ratios

Author

Listed:
  • Tian Xiong

    (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))

  • Kaan Celebi

    (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))

  • Paul J.J. Welfens

    (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))

Abstract

There has been a long-standing debate over the development of savings rates in developed economies, and an emphasis has been placed on ageing societies and a global savings glut. Meanwhile, with rising global temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events becoming an increasingly visible economic and ecological global challenge, the concern of climate-related risks could indeed be an important issue in monetary and real economic analysis. This study aims to investigate the dual long-term challenge of sustainable economic development. By constructing an enhanced growth model and investigating empirically, using a panel approach which employs data from OECD countries between 1980 to 2020, the question as to the extent to which the savings rate is affected by ageing populations and environmental degradation will be addressed in a broad macro perspective. This study explores for the first time the impact of natural disasters on OECD countries and the main findings indicate that ageing populations and natural disasters have significant negative impacts on savings rates. Moreover, the analyses using sub-samples suggest a diminishing role of the real long-term interest rate regarding savings behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Tian Xiong & Kaan Celebi & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2021. "OECD Countries' Twin Long-run Challenge: The Impact of Ageing Dynamics and Increasing Natural Disasters on Savings Ratios," EIIW Discussion paper disbei309, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei309
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eiiw.wiwi.uni-wuppertal.de/fileadmin/eiiw/Daten/Publikationen/Gelbe_Reihe/disbei309.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    2. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    3. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    4. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Christian H Ebeke, 2016. "The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity," IMF Working Papers 2016/238, International Monetary Fund.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    6. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
    7. Cheung Kui-yin & Lin, Ping, 2004. "Spillover effects of FDI on innovation in China: Evidence from the provincial data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 25-44.
    8. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    9. Eeckhoudt, Louis & Schlesinger, Harris, 2008. "Changes in risk and the demand for saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1329-1336, October.
    10. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2009. "International R&D spillovers and institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 723-741, October.
    11. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Florian Springholz, 2021. "Understanding economic openness: a review of existing measures," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(1), pages 87-120, February.
    12. Stephen Nickell & Luca Nunziata & Wolfgang Ochel, 2005. "Unemployment in the OECD Since the 1960s. What Do We Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 1-27, January.
    13. Berlemann, Michael & Steinhardt, Max F. & Tutt, Jascha, 2015. "Do Natural Disasters Stimulate Individual Saving? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Highly Developed Country," IZA Discussion Papers 9026, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    15. Andor, Mark A. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Sommer, Stephan, 2018. "Climate Change, Population Ageing and Public Spending: Evidence on Individual Preferences," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 173-183.
    16. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    17. de Haas, Ralph & Popov, A., 2018. "Financial Development and Industrial Pollution," Other publications TiSEM a0a4fb82-734a-442a-9ea1-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Watanabe, Wako, 1997. "Why Do People Save? A Micro-Analysis of Motives for Household Saving in Japan," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 537-552, May.
    19. Badi H. Baltagi, 2021. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 6, number 978-3-030-53953-5, August.
    20. Udry, Christopher, 1995. "Risk and Saving in Northern Nigeria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1287-1300, December.
    21. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    22. Kevin Luo & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2018. "Do natural disasters influence long-term saving?: Assessing the impact of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake on household saving rates using synthetic control," Discussion Papers 1804, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    23. Yasuyuki Sawada & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2008. "How Do People Cope with Natural Disasters? Evidence from the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake in 1995," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 463-488, March.
    24. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    25. Ralph De Haas & Alexander Popov, 2023. "Finance and Green Growth," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(650), pages 637-668.
    26. Engen, Eric M. & Gruber, Jonathan, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 545-579, June.
    27. David M. Drukker, 2003. "Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 168-177, June.
    28. Paul Raschky & Hannelore Weck-Hannemann, 2007. "Charity hazard - A real hazard to natural disaster insurance," Working Papers 2007-04, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    29. Filipski, Mateusz & Jin, Ling & Zhang, Xiaobo & Chen, Kevin Z., 2019. "Living like there’s no tomorrow: The psychological effects of an earthquake on savings and spending behavior," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 107-128.
    30. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
    31. Skidmore, Mark, 2001. "Risk, natural disasters, and household savings in a life cycle model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 15-34, January.
    32. Kamrul Hassan & Ruhul Salim, 2015. "Population ageing, income growth and CO2emission," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(1), pages 54-67, January.
    33. De Haas, Ralph & Popov, Alexander, 2019. "Finance and carbon emissions," Working Paper Series 2318, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karmaker, Shamal Chandra & Barai, Munim Kumar & Sen, Kanchan Kumar & Saha, Bidyut Baran, 2023. "Effects of remittances on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from instrumental variable estimation with panel data," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Muhammad Azam & Zia Ur Rehman & Yusnidah Ibrahim, 2022. "Causal nexus in industrialization, urbanization, trade openness, and carbon emissions: empirical evidence from OPEC economies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(12), pages 13990-14010, December.
    3. Mensah, Edouard R. & Filipski, Mateusz J., 2022. "Saving for a rainy day: the impact of natural disasters on savings rates," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322266, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Vo, Duc, 2019. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Environment Degradation: Evidence from Emerging Markets in Asia," MPRA Paper 103292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Iftikhar Yasin & Nawaz Ahmad & Muhammad Aslam Chaudhary, 2021. "The impact of financial development, political institutions, and urbanization on environmental degradation: evidence from 59 less-developed economies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 6698-6721, May.
    6. Anushka Verma & Arun K. Giri & Byomakesh Debata, 2023. "Does ICT diffusion reduce poverty? Evidence from SAARC countries," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 8-28, March.
    7. Amendolagine, Vito & De Pascale, Gianluigi & Faccilongo, Nicola, 2021. "International capital mobility and corporate tax revenues: How do controlled foreign company rules and innovation shape this relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    8. George E. Halkos & Apostolos S. Tsirivis, 2023. "Electricity Prices in the European Union Region: The Role of Renewable Energy Sources, Key Economic Factors and Market Liberalization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    9. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2017. "The Credibility of a Soft Pegged Exchange Rate in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from a Panel Data Study," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 18(1), pages 29-51, May.
    10. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Which are the long-run determinants of US outward FDI? Evidence using large long-memory panels," Working Papers 2022.08, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    11. Mitch Kunce, 2023. "Unemployment and Suicide in the United States: The Import of Addressing Cross-Sectional Dependence," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19.
    12. Dierk Herzer, 2016. "Unions and Income Inequality: A Heterogeneous Panel Co-integration and Causality Analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(3), pages 318-346, September.
    13. Aladejare, Samson Adeniyi, 2022. "Natural resource rents, globalisation and environmental degradation: New insight from 5 richest African economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Ma, Yechi & Chen, Zhiguo & Shinwari, Riazullah & Khan, Zeeshan, 2021. "Financialization, globalization, and Dutch disease: Is Dutch disease exist for resources rich countries?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Mitch Kunce, 2022. "The Tenuous Ecological Divorce and Unemployment Link with Suicide: A U.S. Panel Analysis 1968-2020," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 1-2.
    16. Rizwana Yasmeen & Ihtsham Ul Haq Padda & Xing Yao & Wasi Ul Hassan Shah & Muhammad Hafeez, 2022. "Agriculture, forestry, and environmental sustainability: the role of institutions," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8722-8746, June.
    17. Caravaggio, Nicola, 2022. "Economic growth and forest transition in Latin America," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    18. Yilmaz BAYAR & Ömer Faruk OZTURK, 2016. "Trade Openness and Environmental Pollution in Emerging Market Economies," Eurasian Eononometrics, Statistics and Emprical Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 3(3), pages 33-42, January.
    19. Huafang Huang & Sharafat Ali & Yasir Ahmed Solangi, 2023. "Analysis of the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Environmental Sustainability in Developed and Developing Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    20. Waqas & Dilawar Khan & Róbert Magda, 2022. "The Impact of Forest Wood Product Exports on Environmental Performance in Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-14, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    savings rate; ageing; natural disaster; economic growth; panel analysis; OECD;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Frank Hoffmann (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://elpub.bib.uni-wuppertal.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.