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Wagner's Law in 19th Century Greece: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis

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  • Dimitrios Sideris

    ()
    (Bank of Greece and University of Ioannina)

Abstract

The validity of Wagner’s law, which states that the growth of public expenditure can be explained as a result of the increase in economic activity, is tested for Greece during the period 1833-1938. This represents a period of growth, industrialisation and modernisation of the economy, conditions which should be conducive to Wagner’s law. In addition, the long data sample ensures the reliability of the results in terms of economic significance and statistical inference. Cointegration analysis provides positive evidence for the existence of a long-run relationship between government expenditure and national income, and Granger causality tests indicate that causality runs from income to government expenditure. The results support Wagner’s hypothesis, in line with other empirical studies examining the validity of the hypothesis in 19th century economies.

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File URL: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/Paper200764.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 64.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:64

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Keywords: Public expenditure; Wagner’s law; cointegration.;

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References

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  1. John Thornton, 1999. "Cointegration, causality and Wagner's Law in 19th century Europe," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(7), pages 413-416.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Octomber.
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  4. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1995. "An Examination of Wagner's Law for Greece: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 67-79.
  5. Tsangyao Chang, 2002. "An econometric test of Wagner's law for six countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1157-1169.
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  8. Nikolaos Dritsakis & Antonis Adamopoulos, 2004. "A causal relationship between government spending and economic development: an empirical examination of the Greek economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 457-464.
  9. John Loizides & George Vamvoukas, 2005. "Government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from trivariate causality testing," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 125-152, May.
  10. Meltzer, Allan H & Richard, Scott F, 1981. "A Rational Theory of the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 914-27, October.
  11. Oxley, Les, 1994. "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A Test for Britain 1870-1913," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 286-98, August.
  12. Anisul Islam, 2001. "Wagner's law revisited: cointegration and exogeneity tests for the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 509-515.
  13. Murthy, N R Vasudeva, 1993. "Further Evidence of Wagner's Law for Mexico: An Application of Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(1), pages 92-96.
  14. Mahmoud Wahab, 2004. "Economic growth and government expenditure: evidence from a new test specification," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2125-2135.
  15. Tridimas, George, 2001. " The Economics and Politics of the Structure of Public Expenditure," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 106(3-4), pages 299-316, March.
  16. Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Peter Bernholz, 2008. "Government Bankruptcy of Balkan Nations and their Consequences for Money and Inflation before 1914: A Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 74, Bank of Greece.
  2. Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Further Evidence on Public Spending and Economic Growth in East Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 19298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Milan Sojic & Ljiljana Djurdjevic, 2008. "Monetary Policy Objectives and Istruments used by the Privileged National Bank of the Kingdom of Serbia (1884 - 1914)," Working Papers 87, Bank of Greece.
  4. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Scott Fargher, 2009. "Wagner’s Law Revisited: Cointegration and Causality tests for New Zealand," Working Papers 0917, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
  5. Sophia Lazaretou, 2008. "Banking and Central Banking in Pre-WWII Grecce: Money and Currency Developments," Working Papers 86, Bank of Greece.
  6. Apostolides, Alexander, 2008. "“How Similar to South-Eastern Europe were the Islands of Cyprus and Malta in terms of Agricultural Output and Credit? Evidence during the Interwar Period”," MPRA Paper 9968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Roumen Avramov & Dragana Gnjatovic, 2008. "Stabilization Policies in Bulgaria and Yugoslavia During Communism's Terminal Years : 1980s Economic Visions in Retrospect," Working Papers 81, Bank of Greece.
  8. Zarko Lazarevic, 2008. "Banking Performance in South-Eastern Europe During the Interwar Period," Working Papers 79, Bank of Greece.
  9. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
  10. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and Italian disaggregated public spending: some empirical evidences," MPRA Paper 26662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "The Nexus between Disaggregated Public Spending and GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2560-2579.
  12. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality," MPRA Paper 26668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Yuksel Gormez, 2008. "Banking in Turkey: History and Evolution," Working Papers 83, Bank of Greece.
  14. Stephan Barisitz, 2008. "Banking Transformation (1989 - 2006) in Central and Eastern Europe - With Special Reference to Balkans," Working Papers 78, Bank of Greece.

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