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Panel Data, Cointegration, Causality And Wagner'S Law: Empirical Evidence From Chinese Provinces

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Paresh Kumar Narayan
Ingrid Nielsen
Russell Smyth

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Abstract

This paper tests Wagner's law of increasing state activity using panels of Chinese provinces. The paper's main methodological contribution is in that we employ for the first time in the literature on Wagner's law a panel unit root, panel cointegration and Granger Causality testing approach. Overall, we find mixed evidence in support of Wagner's law for China's central and western provinces, but no support for Wagner's law for the full panel of provinces or for the panel of China's eastern provinces.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2006/0106wagnerslaw.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 01/06.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2006-01

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  2. Biswal, Bagala & Dhawan, Urvashi & Lee, Hooi-Yean, 1999. "Testing Wagner versus Keynes Using Disaggregated Public Expenditure Data for Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 31(10), pages 1283-91, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bao, Shuming & Chang, Gene Hsin & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Woo, Wing Thye, 2002. "Geographic factors and China's regional development under market reforms, 1978-1998," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 89-111. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Oxley, Les, 1994. "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A Test for Britain 1870-1913," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 286-98, August.
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  8. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ansari, M I & Gordon, Daniel V & Akuamoah, C, 1997. "Keynes versus Wagner: Public Expenditure and National Income for Three African Countries," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 543-50, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Abizadeh, Sohrab & Yousefi, Mahmood, 1998. "An empirical analysis of South Korea's economic development and public expenditures growth," The Journal of Socio-Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 687-700. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Holmes, James M & Hutton, Patricia A, 1990. "On the Causal Relationship between Government Expenditures and National Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 87-95, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Song, Shunfeng & Chu, George S. -F. & Chao, Rongqing, 2000. "Intercity regional disparity in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 246-261. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Yang, Dennis Tao, 2002. "What has caused regional inequality in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 331-334, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Tobin, Damian, 2005. "Economic Liberalization, the Changing Role of the State and "Wagner's Law": China's Development Experience since 1978," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 729-743, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Courakis, Anthony S & Moura-Roque, Fatima & Tridimas, George, 1993. "Public Expenditure Growth in Greece and Portugal: Wagner's Law and Beyond," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 125-34, January.
  18. Panos C. Afxentiou & Apostolos Serletis, 1996. "Government Expenditures In The European Union: Do They Converge Or Follow Wagner'S Law?," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 33-47, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Kolluri, Bharat R & Panik, Michael J & Wahab, Mahmoud S, 2000. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from G7 Countries," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1059-68, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Chang, Tsangyao, 2002. "An Econometric Test of Wagner's Law for Six Countries Based on Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling Techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1157-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Ahsan, Syed M & Kwan, Andy C C & Sahni, Balbir S, 1996. "Cointegration and Wagner's Hypothesis: Time Series Evidence for Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 1055-58, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Jian, Tianlun & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1996. "Trends in regional inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Bird, Richard M, 1971. "Wagner's o Law' of Expanding State Activity," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 26(1), pages 1-26.
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