IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ist/iujepr/v8y2021i2p199-210.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Validity of Wagner’s Law in EU Member Transition Economies: Panel Causality Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Selim Demez

    (Hakkari University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Hakkari-Turkey)

Abstract

One of the main issues which has been given great emphasis in economics literature, particularly since the 19th century, is that of the relationship between public expenditure and economic growth. There are two theoretical approaches in the literature dealing with this relationship. The first is Wagner’s law which states that public expenditure increases as growth expands. The second is related to the Keynesian hypothesis which states that public spending encourages growth. In other words, while Wagner asserts that the causality runs from growth to public spending, Keynes claims that public spending causes growth. In this study, the validity of Wagner’s Law was analyzed with the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test using annual data from between the years 1995 and 2019 for eleven European Union member transition economies. Our main purpose in this study was to determine whether public expenditure can be used as an effective policy tool in transition economies that are members of the European Union. The test results revealed that there is one-way causality from growth to public spending. In other words, Wagner’s Law is valid for the country group and period subject to the study

Suggested Citation

  • Selim Demez, 2021. "Validity of Wagner’s Law in EU Member Transition Economies: Panel Causality Analysis," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 199-210, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:iujepr:v:8:y:2021:i:2:p:199-210
    DOI: 10.26650/JEPR.910662
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/9F250EDCAC0C486CAC3B191E63FC7FA8
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/jepr/article/validity-of-wagners-law-in-eu-member-transition-economies-panel-causality-analysis
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26650/JEPR.910662?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. F. Al-Faris, 2002. "Public expenditure and economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1187-1193.
    2. Lingxiao WANG & Adelina DUMITRESCU PECULEA & Handuo XU, 2016. "The relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Romania: Does it obey Wagner’s or Keynes’s Law?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 41-52, Autumn.
    3. Bagala Biswal & Urvashi Dhawan & Hooi-Yean Lee, 1999. "Testing Wagner versus Keynes using disaggregated public expenditure data for Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(10), pages 1283-1291.
    4. Vladimer Papava, 2005. "On the theory of post-Communist economic transition to market," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(1/2), pages 77-97, January.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    6. Bharat Kolluri & Michael Panik & Mahmoud Wahab, 2000. "Government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1059-1068.
    7. Chiung-Ju Huang, 2006. "Government Expenditures In China And Taiwan: Do They Follow Wagner¡¯S Law?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 139-148, December.
    8. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    9. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    11. Loizides, John & Vamvoukas, George, 2005. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Trivariate Causality Testing," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8(1), pages 1-28, May.
    12. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    13. Jeyhun A. Abbasov & Khatai Aliyev, 2018. "Testing Wagner's Law and Keynesian Hypothesis in Selected Post-Soviet Countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 66(5), pages 1227-1237.
    14. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 713-713, June.
    15. Katchanovski, Ivan, 2000. "Divergence in Growth in Post-Communist Countries," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 55-81, April.
    16. Kojo Menyah & Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2013. "Government expenditure and economic growth: the ethiopian experience, 1950–2007," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 47(1), pages 263-280, January-J.
    17. M. Adetunji Babatunde, 2011. "A bound testing analysis of Wagner's law in Nigeria: 1970-2006," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2843-2850.
    18. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach & Roland Mestel, 2012. "The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 20(1), pages 161-182, March.
    19. Sunday Osaretin Iyare & Troy Lorde, 2004. "Co-integration, causality and Wagner's law: tests for selected Caribbean countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 815-825.
    20. Paparas, Dimitrios & Stoian, Andreea, 2016. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in Romania during 1995-2015," MPRA Paper 74378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Mahmoud Wahab, 2004. "Economic growth and government expenditure: evidence from a new test specification," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2125-2135.
    22. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 697-712, June.
    23. Tsangyao Chang, 2002. "An econometric test of Wagner's law for six countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1157-1169.
    24. Lingxiao WANG & Adelina DUMITRESCU PECULEA & Handuo XU, 2016. "The relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Romania: Does it obey Wagner’s or Keynes’s Law?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 41-52, Autumn.
    25. Menyah, Kojo & Nazlioglu, Saban & Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2014. "Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 386-394.
    26. Emmanuel Ziramba, 2008. "Wagner'S Law: An Econometric Test For South Africa, 1960‐2006," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(4), pages 596-606, December.
    27. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    28. Singh, Balvir & Sahni, Balbir S, 1984. "Causality between Public Expenditure and National Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(4), pages 630-644, November.
    29. Wu, Shih-Ying & Tang, Jenn-Hong & Lin, Eric S., 2010. "The impact of government expenditure on economic growth: How sensitive to the level of development?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 804-817, November.
    30. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
    31. M. I. Ansari & D. V. Gordon & C. Akuamoah, 1997. "Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 543-550.
    32. Nicholas Odhiambo, 2015. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: an Empirical Investigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 393-406, September.
    33. Alberto Iniguez-Montiel, 2010. "Government expenditure and national income in Mexico: Keynes versus Wagner," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 887-893.
    34. Michael Chletsos & Christos Kollias, 1997. "Testing Wagner's law using disaggregated public expenditure data in the case of Greece: 1958-93," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 371-377.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    2. Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2019. "Wagner on government spending and national income: A new look at an old relationship," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 636-646.
    3. Nayak, Dinesh Kumar & Hazarika, Bhabesh, 2022. "Linkage between Income and Government Expenditure at Indian Sub-nationals: A Second Generation Panel Co-integration Techniques," Working Papers 22/374, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Ampah Isaac Kwesi & Kotosz Balázs, 2016. "Wagner versus Keynes: the causal nexus between Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: An Empirical study of Burkina Faso," Journal of Heterodox Economics, Sciendo, vol. 3(2), pages 74-101, December.
    5. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2016. "A Cointegration and Causality Test on Government Expenditure –Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from a South African Province," MPRA Paper 102085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2017.
    6. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter & Ioannis Kostakis, 2019. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in the United Kingdom during the Last Two Centuries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 269-291, April.
    7. Ali, Wajid & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Testing Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis for Pakistan: The Role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Expenditure," MPRA Paper 74570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mursit Recepoglu, 2022. "Public Expenditures, Economic Growth and Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 293-314, July.
    9. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality," MPRA Paper 26668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
    11. V. Chandran Govindaraju & Ramesh Rao & Sajid Anwar, 2011. "Economic growth and government spending in Malaysia: a re-examination of Wagner and Keynesian views," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 203-219, August.
    12. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "The Nexus between Disaggregated Public Spending and GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2560-2579.
    13. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, September.
    14. Arvin, Mak B. & Pradhan, Rudra P. & Nair, Mahendhiran S., 2021. "Are there links between institutional quality, government expenditure, tax revenue and economic growth? Evidence from low-income and lower middle-income countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 468-489.
    15. Cristian C. Popescu & Laura Diaconu (Maxim), 2021. "Government Spending and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis on Romania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, June.
    16. Pula Leke & Elshani Alban, 2018. "The Relationship Between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth in Kosovo: Findings from a Johansen Co-Integrated Test and a Granger Causality Test," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 97(1), pages 47-62, January.
    17. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
    18. Suzana Balaban & Dejan Živkov, 2021. "Validity of Wagner’s Law in Transition Economies: A Multivariate Approach," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 236(1), pages 105-131, March.
    19. Stephen Moore, 2016. "Wagner in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 69-103.
    20. Christian Richter & Dimitrios Paparas, 2012. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in Greece during the last 2 centuries," Working Papers 2012.2, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transition economies; Wagner’s law; Public expenditures; Growth; Panel causality analysis JEL Classification : E62 ; C33 ; H59;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H59 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ist:iujepr:v:8:y:2021:i:2:p:199-210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ertugrul YASAR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifisttr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.