IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v19y2008i2p297-307.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces

Author

Listed:
  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Nielsen, Ingrid
  • Smyth, Russell

Abstract

This paper tests Wagner's law of increasing state activity using panels of Chinese provinces. The paper's main methodological contribution is in that we employ for the first time in the literature on Wagner's law a panel unit root, panel cointegration and Granger causality testing approach. Overall, we find mixed evidence in support of Wagner's law for China's central and western provinces, but no support for Wagner's law for the full panel of provinces or for the panel of China's eastern provinces.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:19:y:2008:i:2:p:297-307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043-951X(06)00092-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
    2. Bagala Biswal & Urvashi Dhawan & Hooi-Yean Lee, 1999. "Testing Wagner versus Keynes using disaggregated public expenditure data for Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(10), pages 1283-1291.
    3. Bharat Kolluri & Michael Panik & Mahmoud Wahab, 2000. "Government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1059-1068.
    4. Song, Shunfeng & Chu, George S. -F. & Chao, Rongqing, 2000. "Intercity regional disparity in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 246-261.
    5. Yang, Dennis Tao, 2002. "What has caused regional inequality in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 331-334, December.
    6. Nomura, Masuo, 1995. "Wagner's Hypothesis and Displacement Effect in Japan, 1960-1991," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 121-135.
    7. Jian, Tianlun & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1996. "Trends in regional inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21.
    8. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1961. "The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number peac61-1, March.
    9. Hayo, Bernd, 1994. "No Further Evidence of Wagner's Law for Mexico," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 49(2), pages 287-294.
    10. A. A. Asseery & D. Law & N. Perdikis, 1999. "Wagner's Law and public expenditure in Iraq: a test using disaggregated data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 39-44.
    11. Anisul Islam, 2001. "Wagner's law revisited: cointegration and exogeneity tests for the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 509-515.
    12. Oxley, Les, 1994. "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A Test for Britain 1870-1913," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 286-298, August.
    13. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    14. Ferda Halicioglu, 2005. "Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey, 1960-2003," Public Economics 0502013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Lee, Jongchul, 2000. "Changes in the source of China's regional inequality," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 232-245.
    16. Peacock, Alan & Scott, Alex, 2000. "The Curious Attraction of Wagner's Law," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(1-2), pages 1-17, January.
    17. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    18. Sunday Osaretin Iyare & Troy Lorde, 2004. "Co-integration, causality and Wagner's law: tests for selected Caribbean countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 815-825.
    19. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    20. Goffman, Irving J & Mahar, Dennis J, 1971. "The Growth of Public Expenditures in Selected Developing Nations: Six Caribbean Countries 1940-65," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 26(1), pages 57-74.
    21. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1995. "An Examination of Wagner's Law for Greece: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 67-79.
    22. Bird, Richard M, 1971. "Wagner's o Law' of Expanding State Activity," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 26(1), pages 1-26.
    23. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    24. Abizadeh, Sohrab & Yousefi, Mahmood, 1988. "An empirical re-examination of Wagner's law," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 169-173.
    25. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Causality between Income and Government Expenditure: A Broad International Perspective," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 41(3), pages 393-414.
    26. Mahmoud Wahab, 2004. "Economic growth and government expenditure: evidence from a new test specification," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2125-2135.
    27. Tsangyao Chang, 2002. "An econometric test of Wagner's law for six countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1157-1169.
    28. Henrekson, Magnus, 1993. "Wagner's Law--A Spurious Relationship?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(3), pages 406-415.
    29. Bosch, Gerhard (Ed.) & Wagner, Alexandra (Ed.), 2000. "Umbau der Finanzierung der Arbeitslosenversicherung," Graue Reihe des Instituts Arbeit und Technik 2000-03, Institut Arbeit und Technik (IAT), Westfälische Hochschule, University of Applied Sciences.
    30. Lin, Chi-Ang, 1995. "More Evidence on Wagner's Law for Mexico," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(2), pages 267-277.
    31. Halicioglu Ferda, 2003. "Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey, 1960-2000," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 31-42, August.
    32. Bao, Shuming & Chang, Gene Hsin & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Woo, Wing Thye, 2002. "Geographic factors and China's regional development under market reforms, 1978-1998," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 89-111.
    33. Kanbur, Ravi & Zhang, Xiaobo, 1999. "Which Regional Inequality? The Evolution of Rural-Urban and Inland-Coastal Inequality in China from 1983 to 1995," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 686-701, December.
    34. M. I. Ansari & D. V. Gordon & C. Akuamoah, 1997. "Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 543-550.
    35. Abizadeh, Sohrab & Yousefi, Mahmood, 1998. "An empirical analysis of South Korea's economic development and public expenditures growth," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 687-700.
    36. Holmes, James M & Hutton, Patricia A, 1990. "On the Causal Relationship between Government Expenditures and National Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 87-95, February.
    37. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    38. Tobin, Damian, 2005. "Economic Liberalization, the Changing Role of the State and "Wagner's Law": China's Development Experience since 1978," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 729-743, May.
    39. Michael Chletsos & Christos Kollias, 1997. "Testing Wagner's law using disaggregated public expenditure data in the case of Greece: 1958-93," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 371-377.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter & Ioannis Kostakis, 2019. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in the United Kingdom during the Last Two Centuries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 269-291, April.
    2. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2016. "A Cointegration and Causality Test on Government Expenditure –Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from a South African Province," MPRA Paper 102085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2017.
    3. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    4. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality," MPRA Paper 26668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Christian Richter & Dimitrios Paparas, 2012. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in Greece during the last 2 centuries," Working Papers 2012.2, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    6. Nayak, Dinesh Kumar & Hazarika, Bhabesh, 2022. "Linkage between Income and Government Expenditure at Indian Sub-nationals: A Second Generation Panel Co-integration Techniques," Working Papers 22/374, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    7. Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2019. "Wagner on government spending and national income: A new look at an old relationship," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 636-646.
    8. Thabane, Kanono & Lebina, Sello, 2016. "Economic Growth and Government Spending Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Lesotho," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 4(1), January.
    9. Ali, Wajid & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Testing Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis for Pakistan: The Role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Expenditure," MPRA Paper 74570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Manuel Jaen-Garcia, 2011. "Empirical Analysis of Wagner’s Law for the Spain’s Regions," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 1-17, November.
    11. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
    12. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "The Nexus between Disaggregated Public Spending and GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2560-2579.
    13. Stephen Moore, 2016. "Wagner in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 69-103.
    14. Yoshito Funashima & Kazuki Hiraga, 2017. "Wagner’s law, fiscal discipline, and intergovernmental transfer: empirical evidence at the US and German state levels," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 652-677, August.
    15. Manuel Jaén-García, 2018. "Wagner’s Law: A Revision and a New Empirical Estimation," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 224(1), pages 13-35, March.
    16. Dimitrios Sideris, 2007. "Wagner's Law in 19th Century Greece: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Working Papers 64, Bank of Greece.
    17. Alfonso Arpaia & Alessandro Turrini, 2008. "Government expenditure and economic growth in the EU: long-run tendencies and short-term adjustment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 300, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Further Evidence on Public Spending and Economic Growth in East Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 19298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:agr:journl:v:4(621):y:2019:i:4(621):p:181-200 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
    21. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and Italian disaggregated public spending: some empirical evidences," MPRA Paper 26662, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:19:y:2008:i:2:p:297-307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.