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Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A Test for Britain 1870-1913

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  • Oxley, Les

Abstract

Wagner's law, first proposed in 1883, has been tested on numerous occasions for many countries. The evidence presented to date on the existence of 'the law' has been mixed and interpretation have been hampered by the general neglect of such issues as non-stationary and cointegration. Henrekson (1990) considers the stationarity and cointegration properties of Swedish data, but finds no evidence of Wagner's law. In this study cointegration is taken as a necessary condition for the non-spurious existence of Wagner's law and the testing methodology is applied to British data, 1870-1913. Evidence of co-integration and unidirectional Granger causality is found in the data and support for the law is established. Copyright 1994 by Scottish Economic Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Scottish Economic Society in its journal Scottish Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 41 (1994)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 286-98

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:41:y:1994:i:3:p:286-98

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Cited by:
  1. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Scott Fargher, 2009. "Wagner’s Law Revisited: Cointegration and Causality tests for New Zealand," Working Papers 0917, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
  2. Antoniou Antonis & Katrakilidis Constantinos & Tsaliki Persefoni, 2013. "Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Evidence from pre-WWII Greece," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(4), pages 457-472, June.
  3. Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011. "The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 708-722, August.
  4. Alfonso Arpaia & Alessandro Turrini, 2008. "Government expenditure and economic growth in the EU: long-run tendencies and short-term adjustment," European Economy - Economic Papers 300, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  5. Lars-Erik Borge & Jørn Rattsø, 2002. "Spending Growth With Vertical Fiscal Imbalance: Decentralized Government Spending In Norway, 1880-1990," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 351-373, November.
  6. Stephen Kirchner, 2010. "Federal Legislative Activism in Australia: A New Approach to Testing Wagner's Law," Working Paper Series 161, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  7. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Panel Data, Cointegration, Causality And Wagner'S Law: Empirical Evidence From Chinese Provinces," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 01/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  8. Jan Kuckuck, 2012. "Testing Wagner's Law at Different Stages of Economic Development - A Historical Analysis of Five Western European Countries," Working Papers 91, Institute of Empirical Economic Research.
  9. Dimitrios Sideris, 2007. "Wagner's Law in 19th Century Greece: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Working Papers 64, Bank of Greece.
  10. Manuel Jaen-Garcia, 2011. "Empirical Analysis of Wagner’s Law for the Spain’s Regions," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 1-17, November.
  11. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
  12. Stephen Kirchner, 2012. "Federal legislative activism in Australia: a new approach to testing Wagner’s law," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 375-392, December.
  13. Kucukkale, Yakup & Yamak, Rahmi, 2012. "Cointegration, causality and Wagner’s law with disaggregated data: evidence from Turkey, 1968-2004," MPRA Paper 36894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Rajaraman, Indira & Mukhopadhyaya, Hiranya & Rao, Kavita R., 2001. "Time-series properties of state-level public expenditure," Working Papers 02/4, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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