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Ratings versus equity-based credit risk modelling: an empirical analysis

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Author Info
Pamela Nickell
William Perraudin
Simone Varotto

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Abstract

Banks have recently developed new techniques for gauging the credit risk associated with portfolios of illiquid, defaultable instruments. These techniques could revolutionise banks' management of credit risk and could in the longer term serve as a more risk-sensitive basis for calculating regulatory capital on banks' loan books than the current 8% capital charge. In this paper, examples are implemented of the two main types of credit risk model developed so far: ratings-based and equity-based approaches. Using price data on large eurobond portfolios, the paper assesses, on an out-of-sample basis, how well these models track the risks they claim to measure.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 132.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:132

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jackson, Patricia & Perraudin, William, 2000. "Regulatory implications of credit risk modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 1-14, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-25, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael B. Gordy, 1998. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Lopez, Jose A. & Saidenberg, Marc R., 2000. "Evaluating credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 151-165, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Fisher, Lawrence, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 625-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, . "Stability of ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 133, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  10. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 334-362.
  11. Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, 1999. "Credit Risk Modelling: Current Practices and Applications," BASEL Committee Papers bc0002, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mingo, John J., 2000. "Policy implications of the Federal Reserve study of credit risk models at major US banking institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 15-33, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Gregory R. Duffee, 1998. "The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2225-2241, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 1999. "Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1241, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Mark Carey, 2000. "Dimensions of credit risk and their relationship to economic capital requirements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Lea Zicchino, 2005. "A model of bank capital, lending and the macro economy: Basel I versus Basel II," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 88, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2002. "Procyclicality and the New Basel Accord: banks' choice of loan rating system," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Arnoud W.A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn, 2002. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-058/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Mark Carey, 2002. "A guide to choosing absolute bank capital requirements," International Finance Discussion Papers 726, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Patricia Jackson & William Perraudin & Victoria Saporta, . "Regulatory and 'economic' solvency standards for internationally active banks," Bank of England working papers 161, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hergen Frerichs & Gunter Löffler, 2001. "Evaluating credit risk models: A critique and a proposal," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 84, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
  9. Mark Carey, 2000. "Dimensions of Credit Risk and Their Relationship to Economic Capital Requirements," NBER Working Papers 7629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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