IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bkr/wpaper/wps67.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An empirical behavioral model of households’ deposit dollarization

Author

Listed:
  • Ramis Khabibullin

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Alexey Ponomarenko

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

Abstract

We use the behavioral concept to endogenously model the evolution of the link between households’ deposit dollarization and exchange rate developments in Russia. We estimate the model empirically and show that the reaction of households to exchange rate appreciation weakens when exchange rate developments become more volatile. The proposed model outperforms the contemporary nonlinear time series models in forecasting the changes in dollarization during the Bank of Russia’s transition to a flexible exchange rate regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramis Khabibullin & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2020. "An empirical behavioral model of households’ deposit dollarization," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps67, Bank of Russia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps67
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cbr.ru/StaticHtml/File/117685/wp-67_e.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea & Sani, Amir, 2018. "Agent-based model calibration using machine learning surrogates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 366-389.
    2. Alexey Ponomarenko & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2013. "Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 221-243, September.
    3. J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), 2009. "Handbook of Research on Complexity," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3625.
    4. Patrick Honohan, 2007. "Dollarization and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp201, IIIS.
    5. Samreth, Sovannroeun, 2011. "An empirical study on the hysteresis of currency substitution in Cambodia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 518-527.
    6. Edgar L Feige, 2003. "Dynamics of Currency Substitution, Asset Substitution and De facto Dollarisation and Euroisation in Transition Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 45(3), pages 358-383, September.
    7. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2009. "Financial dollarization: Short-run determinants in transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1860-1873, October.
    8. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
    9. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2013. "Large time-varying parameter VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 185-198.
    10. Di Guilmi, C. & Gallegati, M. & Landini, S., 2008. "Economic dynamics with financial fragility and mean-field interaction: A model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3852-3861.
    11. Ramis Khbaibullin & Sergei Seleznev, 2020. "Stochastic Gradient Variational Bayes and Normalizing Flows for Estimating Macroeconomic Models," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps61, Bank of Russia.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/13thfd12aa8rmplfudlgvgahff is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Lux, Thomas, 2018. "Estimation of agent-based models using sequential Monte Carlo methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 391-408.
    14. Mr. Adolfo Barajas & Mr. Armando Méndez Morales, 2003. "Dollarization of Liabilities: Beyond the Usual Suspects," IMF Working Papers 2003/011, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Kamin, Steven B. & Ericsson, Neil R., 2003. "Dollarization in post-hyperinflationary Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 185-211, April.
    16. Di Guilmi, C. & Gallegati, M. & Landini, S. & Stiglitz, J.E., 2020. "An analytical solution for network models with heterogeneous and interacting agents," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 189-220.
    17. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_036 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Valev, Neven T., 2010. "The hysteresis of currency substitution: Currency risk vs. network externalities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 224-235, March.
    19. M. Emranul Haque & Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2009. "Financial Dollarization: Short-Run Determinants in Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 114, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Konstantin Egorov & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2021. "Review of the Bank of Russia and NES Seminar ‘Financial Dollarisation: Causes and Consequences’," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(2), pages 96-104, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Konstantin Egorov & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2021. "Review of the Bank of Russia and NES Seminar ‘Financial Dollarisation: Causes and Consequences’," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(2), pages 96-104, June.
    2. Anna Krupkina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 794-805, October.
    3. Anna Krupkina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 794-805, October.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201511231446 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201511231446 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2010. "Financial Dollarization and European Union Membership," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 257-282, August.
    8. Alexey Ponomarenko & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2013. "Financial dollarization in Russia: causes and consequences," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 221-243, September.
    9. Airaudo, Marco, 2012. "Endogenous Dollarization, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Taylor Principle," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-11, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    10. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2018. "Regional Spillovers in Financial Dollarization," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 238, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Kukacka, Jiri & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2018. "On the estimation of behavioral macroeconomic models via simulated maximum likelihood," Economics Working Papers 2018-11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    12. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    13. Zila, Eric & Kukacka, Jiri, 2023. "Moment set selection for the SMM using simple machine learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 366-391.
    14. Donovan Platt, 2022. "Bayesian Estimation of Economic Simulation Models Using Neural Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 599-650, February.
    15. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Loans in CESEE Countries: A Meta-Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 69-87.
    16. Baek, Seung-Gwan, 2013. "On the determinants of aggregate currency mismatch," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 623-637.
    17. Capasso, Salvatore & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2019. "Domestic or foreign currency? Remittances and the composition of deposits and loans," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 168-183.
    18. Mariya Hake & Fernando Lopez-Vicente & Luis Molina, 2014. "Do the Drivers of Loan Dollarization Differ between CESEE and Latin America? A Meta-Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-35.
    19. Mariya Hake & Fernando López-Vicente & Luis Molina, 2014. "Do the drivers of loan dollarisation differ between cesee and Latin America? a meta-analysis," Working Papers 1406, Banco de España.
    20. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Institutions and financial dollarization: Indirect effects based on a policy experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 405-410.
    21. Platt, Donovan, 2020. "A comparison of economic agent-based model calibration methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    22. Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2011. "What is Driving Financial De-Dollarization in Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 2011/010, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Sami Ben Naceur & Amr Hosny & Gregory Hadjian, 2019. "How to de-dollarize financial systems in the Caucasus and Central Asia?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1979-1999, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dollarization; behavioral finance; variational Bayes; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: BoR Research (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrgvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.