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How to de-dollarize financial systems in the Caucasus and Central Asia?

Author

Listed:
  • Sami Ben Naceur

    (Institute for Capacity Development)

  • Amr Hosny

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Gregory Hadjian

    (Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P.)

Abstract

Dollarization rates in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region are among the highest in the world, with adverse consequences for macroeconomic stability, monetary policy transmission, and financial sector development. Using dynamic panel data models, we find that foreign exchange deposits and loans in the CCA are mainly driven by volatile inflation and exchange rates, low financial depth, and asymmetric exchange rate policies biased toward depreciation. Although there is no unique formula for success, empirical studies and cross-country experiences suggest that credible monetary and exchange rate frameworks, low and stable inflation, and deep domestic financial markets are essential ingredients of any de-dollarization strategy. In implementation, policymakers need to consider proper sequencing of policies, effective communication as well as risks from potential financial disintermediation and instability, and/or capital flight.

Suggested Citation

  • Sami Ben Naceur & Amr Hosny & Gregory Hadjian, 2019. "How to de-dollarize financial systems in the Caucasus and Central Asia?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1979-1999, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:56:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1419-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1419-6
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    Cited by:

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    2. Amr Hosny, 2020. "Remittance Concentration and Volatility: Evidence from 72 Developing Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 553-570, October.
    3. Koh,Wee Chian & Yu,Shu, 2020. "A Decade after the 2009 Global Recession : Macroeconomic and Financial Sector Policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9289, The World Bank.
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    6. Ray, Nikhil. & Schmitz, Laura., 2016. "The IMF and the social dimensions of growth : a content analysis of recent Article IV surveillance reports 2014-2015," ILO Working Papers 994902503402676, International Labour Organization.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial dollarization; Financial development; De-dollarization; Central Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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