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Carbon Tax or Carbon Permits: The Impact on Generators' Risks

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  • Richard Green

Abstract

Volatile fuel prices affect both the cost and price of electricity in a liberalised market. Generators with the price-setting technology will face less risk to their profit margins than those with a technology that is not price-setting, even if its costs are not volatile. Emissions permit prices may respond to relative fuel prices, further increasing volatility. This paper simulates the impact of this on generators' profits, comparing an emissions trading scheme and a carbon tax against predictions for the UK in 2020. The carbon tax reduces the volatility faced by nuclear generators, but raises that faced by fossil fuel stations. Optimal portfolios would contain a higher proportion of nuclear plant if a carbon tax was adopted

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File URL: ftp://ftp.bham.ac.uk/pub/RePEc/pdf/RGreen.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 07-02.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:07-02

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Postal: Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT
Web page: http://www.economics.bham.ac.uk
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Keywords: Electricity; emissions trading; emissions taxes; fuel price risk;

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Cited by:
  1. Green, Richard & Vasilakos, Nicholas, 2010. "Market behaviour with large amounts of intermittent generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3211-3220, July.
  2. Baldursson, Fridrik M. & Fehr, Nils-Henrik M. von der, 2009. "Price volatility and risk exposure: on the interaction of quota and product markets," MPRA Paper 14994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Lappi, Pauli & Ollikka, Kimmo & Ollikainen, Markku, 2010. "Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price: Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 1079-1086, February.
  4. Keppler, Jan Horst & Cruciani, Michel, 2010. "Rents in the European power sector due to carbon trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4280-4290, August.
  5. Roques, Fabien A., 2008. "Technology choices for new entrants in liberalized markets: The value of operating flexibility and contractual arrangements," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 245-253, December.
  6. Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.
  7. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Morris, Adele C. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2014. "Pricing carbon in the U.S.: A model-based analysis of power-sector-only approaches," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 130-150.

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