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Can China achieve its 2030 energy development targets by fulfilling carbon intensity reduction commitments?

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  • Cui, Lianbiao
  • Li, Rongjing
  • Song, Malin
  • Zhu, Lei

Abstract

China has proposed carbon intensity targets and energy development targets for 2030. This study investigates the linkages between these targets and assesses if China can achieve its energy development targets by fulfilling its carbon reduction commitments. To this end, it quantitatively evaluates the impact of carbon emission controls on the Chinese economy using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The results show that China's carbon abatement pledge cannot guarantee achievement of all energy objectives. China is likely to reach the upper limit of its carbon intensity target in 2020 and the lower limit in 2030 if current abatement efforts are maintained. To achieve the upper limit in 2030, the carbon price will be CNY 83/tCO2. The energy consumption target for 2020 is likely to be realized but the 2030 target is not. A more stringent price constraint on carbon emissions would be helpful to the achievement of the non-fossil energy target in 2030, but would have a limited promoting effect on natural gas development. Our results reveal the linkages between China's energy targets and carbon emission targets, which is valuable to the cost-effective dual control of energy consumption and carbon emission.

Suggested Citation

  • Cui, Lianbiao & Li, Rongjing & Song, Malin & Zhu, Lei, 2019. "Can China achieve its 2030 energy development targets by fulfilling carbon intensity reduction commitments?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 61-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:83:y:2019:i:c:p:61-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.06.016
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon targets; Energy targets; Energy finance; Dynamic CGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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