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Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia

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  • Ignacio Lozano

    ()

  • Hernán Rincón

    ()

  • Miguel Sarmiento

    ()

  • Jorge Ramos

    ()

Abstract

Las reglas fiscales aumentan la credibilidad en la política económica, permiten un manejo fiscal contracíclico y sostenible intertemporalmente, y contribuyen a la estabilidad y al crecimiento económico. El gobierno colombiano ha usado reglas fiscales para limitar el crecimiento del gasto y el endeudamiento de los entes territoriales y para propiciar la transparencia y responsabilidad fiscal del sector público. Sin embargo, el alcance de dichas reglas ha sido limitado, como lo evidencia la naturaleza estructural del desequilibrio fiscal del gobierno central y la procíclicidad de su política. En este documento se formula y evalúa una regla fiscal cuantitativa de 1% del PIB de superávit primario estructural para el gobierno central, con el fin de consolidar el proceso de ajuste de las finanzas públicas del país y blindar su manejo hacia el futuro. La aplicación contrafactual de la regla muestra que si se hubiera adoptado a comienzos de la década, el gobierno hubiera hecho ahorros anuales de por lo menos 0,7% del PIB entre 2001 y 2006. Si se acogiera este año, se lograrían ahorros del mismo monto entre 2008 y 2011, con lo cual se reduciría el nivel actual de la deuda en 3 puntos del PIB al final del período.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 505.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:505

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Keywords: E61; E62; H60; H61; H62 Classification JEL: Reglas fiscales; credibilidad; política fiscal contracíclica; estabilidad; balance primario estructural.;

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References

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  1. Ignacio Lozano & Hernán Rincón & Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Ramos, 2008. "Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 10(19), pages 311-352, July-Dece.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ignacio Lozano & Hernán Rincón & Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Ramos, 2008. "Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004597, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Julieta Fuentes & Ricardo Salazar, 2010. "Cálculo de un indicador coincidente y adelantado de la actividad económica Salvadoreña," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 289-376, julio-sep.
  3. Hernán Rincón, 2010. "Un análisis comparativo de reglas fiscales cuantitativas," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 431-461, julio-sep.
  4. José A. Murillo & Tonatiuh Peña, 2010. "Futuros de productos básicos alimentarios: ¿son útiles para pronosticar la inflación?," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(3), pages 377-430, julio-sep.

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