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Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia

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Author Info
Ignacio Lozano ()
Hernán Rincón ()
Miguel Sarmiento ()
Jorge Ramos ()

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Abstract

Las reglas fiscales aumentan la credibilidad en la política económica, permiten un manejo fiscal contracíclico y sostenible intertemporalmente, y contribuyen a la estabilidad y al crecimiento económico. El gobierno colombiano ha usado reglas fiscales para limitar el crecimiento del gasto y el endeudamiento de los entes territoriales y para propiciar la transparencia y responsabilidad fiscal del sector público. Sin embargo, el alcance de dichas reglas ha sido limitado, como lo evidencia la naturaleza estructural del desequilibrio fiscal del gobierno central y la procíclicidad de su política. En este documento se formula y evalúa una regla fiscal cuantitativa de 1% del PIB de superávit primario estructural para el gobierno central, con el fin de consolidar el proceso de ajuste de las finanzas públicas del país y blindar su manejo hacia el futuro. La aplicación contrafactual de la regla muestra que si se hubiera adoptado a comienzos de la década, el gobierno hubiera hecho ahorros anuales de por lo menos 0,7% del PIB entre 2001 y 2006. Si se acogiera este año, se lograrían ahorros del mismo monto entre 2008 y 2011, con lo cual se reduciría el nivel actual de la deuda en 3 puntos del PIB al final del período.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 004597.

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Length: 67
Date of creation: 06 Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004597

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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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  7. Jerome Creel, 2003. "Ranking Fiscal Policy Rules: the Golden Rule of Public Finance vs. the Stability and Growth Pact," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2003-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. J. D. Craig & George Kopits, 1998. "Transparency in Government Operations," IMF Occasional Papers 158, International Monetary Fund.
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  14. Alberto Alesina & Ricardo Hausmann & Rudolf Hommes & Ernesto Stein, 1996. "Budget Institutions and Fiscal Performance in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 5586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "Good, Bad or Ugly? On the Effects of Fiscal Rules with Creative Accounting," CEPR Discussion Papers 2663, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Pereyra Ayala, José Luis, 2000. "Reglas fiscales para el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 6. [Downloadable!]
  17. Macarena García & Pablo García & Bernardita Piedrabuena, 2005. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules: The Recent Chilean Experience," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 340, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Hernán Rincón & Jorge Ramos & Ignacio Lozano, . "Crisis Fiscal Actual: Diagnóstico y Recomendaciones," Borradores de Economia 298, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Ulpiano Ayala Oramas & Roberto Perotti, 2000. "El proceso presupuestal colombiano," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 002535, FEDESARROLLO. [Downloadable!]
  22. Juan Carlos Echeverry & Jorge Alexander Bonilla & Andrés Moya, 2006. "Rigideces Institucionales Y Flexibilidad Presupuestaria: Los Casos De Argentina, Colombia, México Y Perú," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 003475, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE. [Downloadable!]
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