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The Colombian Banking and Crisis: Macroeconomic Consequences and What to Expect

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  • Andrés Felipe Arias
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    Abstract

    While in the early nineties Colombia grew at rates exceeding 4% and was catalogued as one of the top emerging markets, in 1999 its economy fell 4%, its exchange rate regime (a target zone) collapsed and by June of 2000 its unemployment level peaked at 20.4%. This turn of events is associated to an episode of financial distress and a troubled intermediary sector that has haunted the Colombian economy in the late 1990's. The purpose of this paper is to understand the macoeconomic consequences of the recent financial crisis in Colombia. I solve, calibrate and simulate a simple version of the optimal growt model where banks absorb real resources from the economy and are also vulnerable to crises. The results are useful because the replicate the recent behavoir of several macroeconomic variables in Colombia. Moreover, they give some insight into what should be expected from these variables in the near future. There are two fundamental take aways. First, the negative income and welfare effects of the Colombian financial crisis are non-negligible and long lasting (five years approximately). Second, the data suggest that the crisis which permeated the Colombian financial system since the last months of 1997 or first months of 1998 has been deepened by another adverse financial shock that hit the Colombian intermediary sector in mid/late 1999.

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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 157.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:157

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    1. Sebastian Edwards & Carlos A. Végh, 1997. "Banks and Macroeconomic Disturbances Under Predetermined Exchange Rates," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 115, Universidad del CEMA.
    2. John H. Boyd & Bruce D. Smith, 1995. "The evolution of debt and equity markets in economic development," Working Papers 542, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Re-Examining the Contributions of Money and Banking Shocks to the U.S. Great Depression," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 183-260 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Diaz-Gimenez, Javier & Prescott, Edward C. & Fitzgerald, Terry & Alvarez, Fernando, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 533-559.
    5. V.V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 1995. "The growth effects of monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 18-32.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises - Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Huybens, Elisabeth & Guzman, Mark G. & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Monetary, Fiscal, and Bank Regulatory Policy in a Simple Monetary Growth Model," Staff General Research Papers 5136, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
    11. repec:fth:inadeb:321 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis," Research Paper 9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    14. Galor, Oded, 1992. "A Two-Sector Overlapping-Generations Model: A Global Characterization of the Dynamical System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1351-86, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Andrés Felipe Arias, 2001. "Banking Productivity And Economic Fluctuations: Colombia 1998-2000," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002050, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. Arias Andrés, 2002. "Banking Productivity and Economic Fluctuations: Colombia 1998-2000," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    3. Alejandro Torres & Remberto Rhenals & Wilman Gómez, 2010. "Crisis Financieras Y Efectividad De La Política De Prestamista De Última Instancia: Un Modelo De Equilibrio General Dinámico Para El Caso Colombiano," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.

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