IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/1165.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Efecto del riesgo de tipo de cambio en la rentabilidad de los bonos soberanos en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Carolina Vargas-Páez
  • Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas

Abstract

Este documento estudió el impacto de la devaluación y la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio sobre la estructura a plazos de las tasas de interés en Colombia durante el periodo 2008 - 2020. Para este fin se utilizaron modelos de series de tiempo univariados y multivariados con umbrales (TVAR). Entre los resultados se observó un efecto no lineal de la devaluación y la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio sobre el nivel y la pendiente de la curva de rendimientos. El empinamiento generado por un choque de devaluación se duplica en escenarios de alta devaluación y volatilidad sin embargo para este último el impacto es de mayor tamaño y duración. A diferencia de los modelos lineales, encontramos a partir del TVAR que un mayor nivel de endeudamiento genera una desvalorización de los títulos de deuda, ajustando la curva de rendimientos al alza, en escenarios de alta incertidumbre de la tasa de cambio. Además, encontramos que, ante un choque de aversión al riesgo, los inversionistas valoran más niveles bajos de volatilidad que bajas devaluaciones del tipo de cambio. **** ABSTRACT: In this article, we study the impact of exchange rate depreciation and volatility on the sovereign yield curve during the 2008 - 2020 timeframe. We do this by estimating univariate and multivariate time series models and a threshold vector autoregressive model. Our findings support the presence of nonlinearities in the relationship between the exchange rate risk and the yield curve level and slope. The bearish steepening resulting from a depreciation shock is doubled when the depreciation and volatility are above the threshold, however when the volatility is high the impact is bigger and lasts longer. Contrary to lineal models, an increase of the level of the public debt has a significant impact on the yield curve level as sovereign bonds have been devalued during periods of high exchange rate volatility. Besides, our results suggest that in presence of a risk aversion shock, investors appreciate low volatility rather than low exchange rate depreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Carolina Vargas-Páez & Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas, 2021. "Efecto del riesgo de tipo de cambio en la rentabilidad de los bonos soberanos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1165, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1165
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1165
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1165
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.1165?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 931-956, November.
    2. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    3. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    4. Melo-Becerra & Ramos-Forero & Hector Zárate-Solano, 2015. "Sovereign bond markets and financial stability in an emerging economy: an application of directed acyclic graphs and SVAR models," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 306-319, November.
    5. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    6. Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. & Lumsdaine, R. L., 2002. "The dynamics of emerging market equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 295-350, June.
    7. Bruce Hansen, 1999. "Testing for Linearity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 551-576, December.
    8. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    9. Cook, David, 2009. "The puzzling dual of the uncovered interest parity puzzle evidence from Pacific Rim capital flows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 449-456, June.
    10. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Gloria Sarmiento, 2018. "Sovereign risk and the real exchange rate: A non-linear approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 1-14.
    11. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation," BIS Working Papers 538, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Oguzhan Ozcelebi, 2018. "Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility on Macroeconomic and Financial Variables: Empirical Evidence from PVAR Modeling," Chapters, in: Vito Bobek (ed.), Trade and Global Market, IntechOpen.
    13. Miguel Urrutia & Jorge Norberto Llano, 2011. "La crisis internacional y cambiaria de Fin de Siglo en Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, May.
    14. Ming Chien Lo & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Adjustment to the Law of One Price," Working Papers 0030, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    15. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio I. Garcia Pascual, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," CESifo Working Paper Series 902, CESifo.
    16. William B. English & Mico Loretan, 2000. "Evaluating \"correlation breakdowns\" during periods of market volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 658, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 66-78, March.
    18. Alexander Guarín & José Fernando Moreno & Hernando Vargas, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between US and Colombian Long-Term Sovereign Bond Yields," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 32(74), pages 68-86, June.
    19. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
    20. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009. "The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
    21. Fidora, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2007. "Home bias in global bond and equity markets: The role of real exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 631-655, June.
    22. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
    23. Jaratin Lily & Mori Kogid & Mohd Rahimie Abd Karim & Rozilee Asid & Dullah Mulok, 2011. "Empirical Testing on Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in Malaysia," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(2), pages 1-5.
    24. Cathy W. S. Chen & Jack C. Lee, 1995. "Bayesian Inference Of Threshold Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 483-492, September.
    25. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
    26. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    27. Ismailov, Adilzhan & Rossi, Barbara, 2018. "Uncertainty and deviations from uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 242-259.
    28. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 197-202, May.
    29. Jongmoo Jay Choi & Murli Rajan, 1997. "A Joint Test of Market Segmentation and Exchange Risk Factor in International Capital Market," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 28(1), pages 29-49, March.
    30. Chen, Cathy W. S., 1998. "A Bayesian analysis of generalized threshold autoregressive models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-22, September.
    31. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2015. "Exchange rate uncertainty and international portfolio flows: A multivariate GARCH-in-mean approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 70-92.
    32. Bank for International Settlements, 2014. "The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 78.
    33. Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
    34. Blaise Gadanecz & Ken Miyajima & Chang Shu, 2014. "Exchange rate risk and local currency sovereign bond yields in emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 474, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. Kasman, Saadet & Vardar, Gülin & Tunç, Gökçe, 2011. "The impact of interest rate and exchange rate volatility on banks' stock returns and volatility: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1328-1334, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nazlioglu, Saban & Kucukkaplan, Ilhan & Kilic, Emre & Altuntas, Mehmet, 2022. "Financial market integration of emerging markets: Heavy tails, structural shifts, nonlinearity, and asymmetric persistence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Gadanecz, Blaise & Miyajima, Ken & Shu, Chang, 2018. "Emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields: The role of exchange rate risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 371-401.
    3. Mundra, Sruti & Bicchal, Motilal, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy and financial accelerator: Evidence from India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    4. Tigran Poghosyan & Evžen KoÄenda & Petr ZemÄik, 2008. "Modeling Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Armenia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 41-61, January.
    5. Doukas, John A. & Zhang, Hao, 2013. "The performance of NDF carry trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 172-190.
    6. Olesia Kozlova, 2013. "Forward-Rate Bias, Imperfect Knowledge, and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," 2013 Papers pko627, Job Market Papers.
    7. Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Determinants: Case of Armenia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp297, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    8. Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Does risk premium help uncover the uncovered interest parity failure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    9. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    10. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 568-573, January.
    11. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009. "The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
    12. Gian Paulo Soave, 2015. "Choques fiscais e instabilidade financeira no Brasil: uma abordagem TVAR," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_02, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    13. Matthieu Bussière & Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2022. "The New Fama Puzzle," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 451-486, September.
    14. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
    15. Rosen Valchev, 2020. "Bond Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 124-166, April.
    16. Dominika Kolcunova & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Estimating the Effective Lower Bound on the Czech National Bank’s Policy Rate," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 550-577, December.
    17. Dr. Shakill Hassan & Sean Smith, 2011. "The Rand as a Carry Trade Target Risk Returns and Policy Implications," Working Papers 4878, South African Reserve Bank.
    18. Tarek A Hassan & Rui C Mano, 2019. "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-Currency World," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 397-450.
    19. Kim, Heeho, 2011. "The risk adjusted uncovered equity parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1491-1505.
    20. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    estructura a plazos de las tasas de interés; TVAR; riesgo de tasa de cambio; no-linealidad; term structure of interest rates; TVAR; exchange rate risk; nonlinearities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.