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A tool to nowcast tourist overnight stays with payment data and complementary indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Marta Crispino

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Vincenzo Mariani

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper proposes a strategy for nowcasting tourist overnight stays in Italy by exploiting payment card data and Google Search indices. The strategy is applied to national and regional overnight stays at a time of a significant and unanticipated shock to tourism flows and payment habits (the COVID-19 pandemic). Our results show that indicators based on payment data are very informative for predicting tourist volumes, both at the national and at the regional level. Instead, the predictive power of Google Search data is more limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Crispino & Vincenzo Mariani, 2023. "A tool to nowcast tourist overnight stays with payment data and complementary indicators," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 746, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_746_23
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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2023-0746/QEF_746_23.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism; time series; payment cards data; Google Trends; nowcasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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