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Where should we go? Internet searches and tourist arrivals

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  • Serhan Cevik

Abstract

The widespread availability of internet search data is a new source of high‐frequency information that can potentially improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether travel‐related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the United States. The results indicate that Google Trends‐augmented forecast models improve forecast accuracy by about 30% compared to the traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and more than 20% compared to the multivariate model incorporating macroeconomic indicators.

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  • Serhan Cevik, 2022. "Where should we go? Internet searches and tourist arrivals," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4048-4057, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:4:p:4048-4057
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2358
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    2. Ziqi Yuan & Guozhu Jia, 2022. "Systematic investigation of keywords selection and processing strategy on search engine forecasting: a case of tourist volume in Beijing," Information Technology & Tourism, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 547-580, December.

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