IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/1602.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Multivariate moments expansion density: application of the dynamic equicorrelation model

Author

Listed:
  • Trino-Manuel Ñíguez

    (Banco de España)

  • Javier Perote

    (Universidad de Salamanca)

Abstract

In this study, we propose a new semi-nonparametric (SNP) density model for describing the density of portfolio returns. This distribution, which we refer to as the multivariate moments expansion (MME), admits any non-Gaussian (multivariate) distribution as its basis because it is specified directly in terms of the basis density s moments. To obtain the expansion of the Gaussian density, the MME is a reformulation of the multivariate Gram-Charlier (MGC), but the MME is much simpler and tractable than the MGC when positive transformations are used to produce well-defined densities. As an empirical application, we extend the dynamic conditional equicorrelation (DECO) model to an SNP framework using the MME. The resulting model is parameterized in a feasible manner to admit two-stage consistent estimation, and it represents the DECO as well as the salient non-Gaussian features of portfolio return distributions. The in- and out-of-sample performance of a MME-DECO model of a portfolio of 10 assets demonstrates that it can be a useful tool for risk management purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Trino-Manuel Ñíguez & Javier Perote, 2016. "Multivariate moments expansion density: application of the dynamic equicorrelation model," Working Papers 1602, Banco de España.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1602
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/16/Fich/dt1602e.pdf
    File Function: First version, January 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Louis Eeckhoudt & Harris Schlesinger, 2006. "Putting Risk in Its Proper Place," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 280-289, March.
    2. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2001. "Gram-Charlier densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1457-1483, October.
    3. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Del Brio, Esther B. & Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2011. "Multivariate semi-nonparametric distributions with dynamic conditional correlations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 347-364.
    5. repec:oup:rfinst:v:25:y::i:12:p:3711-3751 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Harris, Richard D.F. & Mazibas, Murat, 2013. "Dynamic hedge fund portfolio construction: A semi-parametric approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 139-149.
    7. Trino-Manuel Ñíguez & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Javier Perote, 2015. "Higher-order risk preferences, constant relative risk aversion and the optimal portfolio allocation," Working Papers 1520, Banco de España.
    8. Peter Christoffersen & Vihang Errunza & Kris Jacobs & Hugues Langlois, 2012. "Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3711-3751.
    9. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    10. Withers, Christopher S. & Nadarajah, Saralees, 2014. "The dual multivariate Charlier and Edgeworth expansions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 76-85.
    11. Adrian Pagan, 1986. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 517-538.
    12. Gallant, Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1989. "Seminonparametric Estimation of Conditionally Constrained Heterogeneous Processes: Asset Pricing Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1091-1120, September.
    13. Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
    14. Trino-Manuel Ñíguez & Javier Perote, 2012. "Forecasting Heavy-Tailed Densities with Positive Edgeworth and Gram-Charlier Expansions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 600-627, August.
    15. León, à ngel & Mencía, Javier & Sentana, Enrique, 2009. "Parametric Properties of Semi-Nonparametric Distributions, with Applications to Option Valuation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 176-192.
    16. Gallant, A Ronald & Nychka, Douglas W, 1987. "Semi-nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 363-390, March.
    17. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    18. Phillips, Peter C B, 1977. "A General Theorem in the Theory of Asymptotic Expansions as Approximations to the Finite Sample Distributions of Econometric Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1517-1534, September.
    19. Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2008. "Indirect estimation of large conditionally heteroskedastic factor models, with an application to the Dow 30 stocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 10-25, September.
    20. Emese Lazar & Carol Alexander, 2006. "Normal mixture GARCH(1,1): applications to exchange rate modelling," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 307-336.
    21. Malevergne, Y. & Sornette, D., 2004. "Collective origin of the coexistence of apparent random matrix theory noise and of factors in large sample correlation matrices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 331(3), pages 660-668.
    22. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:212-228 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. White,Halbert, 1996. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521574464.
    24. Esther B. Del Brio & Trino-Manuel Niguez & Javier Perote, 2009. "Gram-Charlier densities: a multivariate approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 855-868.
    25. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    26. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Casas, Isabel, 2013. "Nonparametric correlation models for portfolio allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2268-2283.
    27. Fajardo, José & Farias, Aquiles, 2010. "Derivative pricing using multivariate affine generalized hyperbolic distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1607-1617, July.
    28. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    29. Kotz,Samuel & Nadarajah,Saralees, 2004. "Multivariate T-Distributions and Their Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521826549.
    30. Ignacio Mauleon & Javier Perote, 2000. "Testing densities with financial data: an empirical comparison of the Edgeworth-Sargan density to the Student's t," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 225-239.
    31. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
    32. Francis X. Diebold & Jinyong Hahn & Anthony S. Tay, 1999. "Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation And Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns On Foreign Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 661-673, November.
    33. Jianqing Fan & Lei Qi & Dacheng Xiu, 2014. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of GARCH Models With Heavy-Tailed Likelihoods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 178-191, April.
    34. Sebastian Ebert, 2013. "Moment characterization of higher-order risk preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 267-284, February.
    35. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    36. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2007. "On the efficiency and consistency of likelihood estimation in multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models," Working Paper series 38_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    37. Sebastian Ebert & Daniel Wiesen, 2011. "Testing for Prudence and Skewness Seeking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1334-1349, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2017. "Moments expansion densities for quantifying financial risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 53-69.
    2. Del Brio, Esther B. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Risk quantification for commodity ETFs: Backtesting value-at-risk and expected shortfall," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Collings, David & Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Larkin, Charles & Oxley, Les, 2022. "The effects of negative reputational contagion on international airlines: The case of the Boeing 737-MAX disasters," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Time-varying volatility spillover between Chinese fuel oil and stock index futures markets based on a DCC-GARCH model with a semi-nonparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-143.
    5. Alfredo Trespalacios & Lina M. Cortés & Javier Perote, 2021. "Modeling Electricity Price and Quantity Uncertainty: An Application for Hedging with Forward Contracts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, June.
    6. Jiménez, Inés & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2023. "Multivariate dynamics between emerging markets and digital asset markets: An application of the SNP-DCC model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Corbet, Shaen & Cumming, Douglas J. & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2022. "Have crisis-induced banking supports influenced European bank performance, resilience and price discovery?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Andrés Mora-Valencia & Trino-Manuel Ñíguez & Javier Perote, 2017. "Multivariate approximations to portfolio return distribution," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 347-361, September.
    9. León, Ángel & Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel, 2021. "The transformed Gram Charlier distribution: Parametric properties and financial risk applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 323-349.
    10. Markus Vogl, 2022. "Quantitative modelling frontiers: a literature review on the evolution in financial and risk modelling after the financial crisis (2008–2019)," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(12), pages 1-69, December.
    11. Del Brio, Esther B. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2017. "The kidnapping of Europe: High-order moments' transmission between developed and emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 96-115.
    12. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2022. "The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hedging functionality of Chinese financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    13. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian & Oxley, Les, 2022. "Cryptocurrency liquidity and volatility interrelationships during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    14. Zaichao Du & Pei Pei, 2020. "Backtesting portfolio value‐at‐risk with estimated portfolio weights," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 605-619, September.
    15. Inés Jiménez & Andrés Mora-Valencia & Trino-Manuel Ñíguez & Javier Perote, 2020. "Portfolio Risk Assessment under Dynamic (Equi)Correlation and Semi-Nonparametric Estimation: An Application to Cryptocurrencies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-24, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2017. "Moments expansion densities for quantifying financial risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 53-69.
    2. Del Brio, Esther B. & Perote, Javier, 2012. "Gram–Charlier densities: Maximum likelihood versus the method of moments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 531-537.
    3. Del Brio, Esther B. & Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2011. "Multivariate semi-nonparametric distributions with dynamic conditional correlations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 347-364, April.
    4. Andrés Mora-Valencia & Trino-Manuel Ñíguez & Javier Perote, 2017. "Multivariate approximations to portfolio return distribution," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 347-361, September.
    5. León, Ángel & Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel, 2021. "The transformed Gram Charlier distribution: Parametric properties and financial risk applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 323-349.
    6. Del Brio, Esther B. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2014. "Semi-nonparametric VaR forecasts for hedge funds during the recent crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 330-343.
    7. Trino-Manuel Niguez & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Javier Perote, 2013. "Higher-order moments in the theory of diversification and portfolio composition," Working Papers 18297128, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    8. Del Brio, Esther B. & Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2008. "Multivariate Gram-Charlier Densities," MPRA Paper 29073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Noureldin, Diaa & Shephard, Neil & Sheppard, Kevin, 2014. "Multivariate rotated ARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 16-30.
    10. Del Brio, Esther B. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2017. "The kidnapping of Europe: High-order moments' transmission between developed and emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 96-115.
    11. Jiménez, Inés & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2023. "Multivariate dynamics between emerging markets and digital asset markets: An application of the SNP-DCC model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Brenda Castillo-Brais & Ángel León & Juan Mora, 2022. "Estimating Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall: Do Polynomial Expansions Outperform Parametric Densities?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(22), pages 1-17, November.
    13. Jiménez, Inés & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2022. "Semi-nonparametric risk assessment with cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    14. Matthias R. Fengler & Helmut Herwartz & Christian Werner, 2012. "A Dynamic Copula Approach to Recovering the Index Implied Volatility Skew," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 457-493, June.
    15. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S., 2009. "Asymmetric multivariate normal mixture GARCH," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2129-2154, April.
    16. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Martinez, Oscar, 2021. "Correlation regimes in international equity and bond returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 397-410.
    17. Alfredo Trespalacios & Lina M. Cortés & Javier Perote, 2021. "Modeling Electricity Price and Quantity Uncertainty: An Application for Hedging with Forward Contracts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, June.
    18. Trino-Manuel Ñíguez & Javier Perote, 2012. "Forecasting Heavy-Tailed Densities with Positive Edgeworth and Gram-Charlier Expansions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 600-627, August.
    19. Trespalacios, Alfredo & Cortés, Lina M. & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Uncertainty in electricity markets from a semi-nonparametric approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Noureldin, Diaa & Shephard, Neil & Sheppard, Kevin, 2014. "Multivariate rotated ARCH models," Scholarly Articles 34650305, Harvard University Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    density forecasting; dynamic equicorrelation; Gram-Charlier series; multivariate GARCH; semi-nonparametric method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.