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Sudden Floods, Prudential Regulation and Stability in an Open Economy

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  • Pierre-Richard Agénor
  • K. Alper
  • L. Pereira da Silva

Abstract

We develop a dynamic stochastic model of a middle-income, small open economy with a two-level banking intermediation structure, a risk-sensitive regulatory capital regime, and imperfect capital mobility. Firms borrow from a domestic bank and the bank borrows on world capital markets, in both cases subject to an endogenous premium. A sudden flood in capital flows generates an expansion in credit and activity, and asset price pressures. Countercyclical regulation, in the form of a Basel III-type rule based on real credit gaps, is effective at promoting macroeconomic stability (defined in terms of the volatility of a weighted average of inflation and the output gap) and financial stability (defined in terms of the volatility of a composite index of the nominal exchange rate and house prices). However, because the gain in terms of reduced volatility may exhibit diminishing returns, a countercyclical regulatory rule may need to be supplemented by other, more targeted, macroprudential instruments.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 267.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:267

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Asli Leblebicioglu, 2006. "Financial Integration, Credit Market Imperfections and Consumption Smoothing," 2006 Meeting Papers 651, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Senay, Ozge, 2008. "Disinflation And Exchange-Rate Pass-Through," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 234-256, April.
  3. Robert Kollmann, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7630, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2008. "Introducing Financial Frictions and Unemployment into a Small Open Economy Model," 2008 Meeting Papers 423, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Selim Elekdag & Ivan Tchakarov, 2004. "Balance Sheets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Welfare," IMF Working Papers 04/63, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Pierre-Richard & K. Alper & L. Pereira da Silva, 2011. "Capital Requirements and Business Cycles with Credit Market Imperfections," Working Papers Series 231, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Moura, Marcelo L. & de Carvalho, Alexandre, 2010. "What can Taylor rules say about monetary policy in Latin America?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 392-404, March.
  8. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Koray Alper, 2009. "Monetary Shocks and Central Bank Liquidity with Credit Market Imperfections," Working Papers 0906, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  10. Shi, Kang & Xu, Juanyi, 2010. "Intermediate goods trade and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583, June.
  11. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo & Juan Pablo Medina, 2007. "New Keynesian Models for Chile in the Inflation-Targeting Period," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 13, pages 507-546 Central Bank of Chile.
  12. David Cook & Woon Gyu Choi, 2002. "Liability Dollarization and the Bank Balance Sheet Channel," IMF Working Papers 02/141, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2012. "A Note on Particle Filters Applied to DSGE Models," Working Papers Series 281, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. João Barata R. B. Barroso & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva & Adriana Soares Sales, 2013. "Quantitative Easing and Related Capital Flows into Brazil: measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Working Papers Series 313, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "Information (in) Chains: information transmission through production chains," Working Papers Series 286, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2011. "Macroprudential Regulation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers Series 254, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  5. Bruno Martins, 2012. "Local Market Structure and Bank Competition: evidence from the Brazilian auto loan market," Working Papers Series 299, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. José Renato Haas Ornelas & José Santiago Fajardo Barbachan & Aquiles Rocha de Farias, 2012. "Estimating Relative Risk Aversion, Risk-Neutral and Real-World Densities using Brazilian Real Currency Options," Working Papers Series 269, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Tovar, Camilo & Garcia-Escribano, Mercedes & Vera, Mercedes, 2012. "El crecimiento del crédito y la efectividad de los requerimientos de encaje y otros instrumentos macroprudenciales en América Latina," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 24, pages 45-64.
  8. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Credit Growth and the Effectiveness of Reserve Requirements and Other Macroprudential Instruments in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 12/142, International Monetary Fund.

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